通胀持续确认，但债市或延续修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February, the price continued to recover. The CPI reflected the accelerated repair of endogenous momentum, especially the service sub - item after excluding the base effect. The PPI recovered under the input of raw materials and the mapping of computing power. The market is concerned about whether the bond market will trade the "inflation market", but the report maintains the view that the bond market is in the repair logic [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI and core CPI readings reached the highest monthly values in nearly 3 years. The CPI was 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month, and the core CPI was 1.8% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month, both the highest since February 2023 [2] - The strong rise of CPI was due to the Spring Festival month - shifting factor. Even excluding this factor, the CPI month - on - month was still 0.35 pct stronger than last year. The average month - on - month growth rate of CPI from January to February this year was 0.6%, second only to 2024 in the past 5 years and significantly higher than last year's 0.25% [2] - In terms of sub - items, from January to February, the month - on - month growth rates of service CPI and food CPI were 0.45 pct and 0.55 pct higher than last year, higher than those of non - food (+0.25 pct) and consumer goods (+0.2 pct). In February, food and tobacco, transportation and communication, and education and entertainment made large contributions to the year - on - year change of CPI, almost contributing to all the 1.1 pct change in CPI year - on - year [3] PPI Analysis - In February, the PPI continued to recover year - on - year, but the month - on - month repair speed slowed down. The PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 pct compared with last month, and 0.4% month - on - month, with the growth rate the same as last month [4] - The ex - factory prices of means of production and means of subsistence continued to recover year - on - year. In February, they were - 0.7% and - 1.6% year - on - year, up 0.6 pct and 0.1 pct respectively compared with last month; the month - on - month growth rates were 0.5% and 0 respectively, with the former remaining flat and the latter down 0.1 pct compared with last month [4] - Among sub - items, the ex - factory price of the mining industry accelerated its recovery, while that of durable consumer goods slowed down. In February, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of the mining industry's ex - factory price were - 5.3% and 1.2% respectively, up 2.8 pct and 2.9 pct respectively compared with last month; for durable consumer goods, they were - 1.6% and 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 pct year - on - year and flat month - on - month compared with last month, with the repair speed slowing down [4] - In terms of sub - industries, the ex - factory prices of upstream non - ferrous and energy - chemical industries with input - type characteristics and the computer, communication and electronics industries related to computing power had relatively large month - on - month increases, including non - ferrous mining, oil and gas processing, non - ferrous smelting and rolling, chemical product manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing [4] Market Expectation and Current Situation - The market - expected inflation path included the mapping of "anti - involution" in the new energy industry chain, the turnaround of the real estate chain driving the black industry chain, and the non - ferrous market driven by the prosperity of the technology industry. However, recently, the input - type inflation narrative of "war + oil and gas" has taken the lead [7] - Such input - type inflation has been experienced in 2021 and 2022, which brought contraction risks to the downstream. Looking back, it had little impact on the bond market trend for the whole year. The report maintains the view that the bond market is in the repair logic [7]