铜月报：地缘风险压制风偏，铜价陷入震荡-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks have temporarily cooled global risk appetite, but copper still faces a supply shortage. The trend of global electrification transformation and AI-driven industrial change is irreversible, and major economies will strengthen the competition for strategic metals. It is expected that copper prices will return to a volatile upward trend after adjustment in March, with the LME copper price likely to fluctuate between $12,500 - $13,500 per ton [3][73]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2026 February Copper Market Review - In February 2026, copper prices showed a high-range volatile trend. LME copper fluctuated from a minimum of $12,400 at the beginning of the month to a maximum of $13,500 and then declined. SHFE copper fluctuated in the range of 98,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the overall price center remained basically the same as the previous month. As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.7%; SHFE copper closed at 103,920 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.2% [8]. - After the Spring Festival, the terminal consumption of refined copper in China was weak. Traditional industries were still in the off - season, but the demand for new energy vehicles, PCB boards, and other emerging industries was good. The domestic social inventory increased to over 550,000 tons at the end of February, and the spot premium was mostly at a discount. It is expected that in March, traditional industries will gradually adapt to the high copper prices, and emerging industries will provide stable marginal increments [10][11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Impact of the US - Iran conflict: The US - Iran conflict has led to a short - term surge in oil prices, raising global inflation expectations and restricting the Fed's interest - rate cut space in the first half of the year. The US employment market is weak, which has worried the market about the economic growth prospects. In the short - to - medium term, inflation rebound may limit the interest - rate cut space in the second quarter, but the Fed may maintain a neutral to moderately loose policy stance in the second half of the year [13][14][15]. - Manufacturing situation: The US manufacturing industry in January far exceeded expectations, and the ISM manufacturing PMI rose significantly. The eurozone manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range in February, with Germany's manufacturing industry rebounding, while France's manufacturing industry faced some challenges. Excluding geopolitical risks, the eurozone economy may maintain a stable growth trend, and the ECB's monetary policy will remain cautiously neutral [16][17][18]. - China's economic goals and policies: China's GDP growth target for 2026 is 4.5% - 5%. The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. It will also cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and the development of emerging industries will provide broad demand growth for refined copper consumption [19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Global copper concentrate shortage: The shortage of global copper concentrates continues, with the spot TC negative value expanding to - $50/ton. It is expected that the supply growth rate of global copper concentrates in 2026 will be less than 1.5%. Some major overseas mines have not shown obvious signs of resumption of production, and the logistics of copper exports in the Congo (Kinshasa) has been interrupted [23][28]. - Domestic and overseas refined copper production: In February, China's refined copper production decreased seasonally. The by - product profits of smelters were relatively healthy, but the domestic cold material supply was slightly tight. Overseas, due to the significant contraction of copper concentrate long - term processing fees, some overseas refined copper production capacities were forced to stop or reduce production [30][31][32]. - Import situation: In December 2025, the import of refined copper decreased by more than 30%, mainly due to factors such as the tariff premium of US copper and freight blockages. The import of scrap copper increased marginally, and China will continue to expand the import of scrap copper from Southeast Asia [46][49]. - Inventory situation: Since February, the domestic visible inventory has increased significantly, and the global inventory has continued to rise. The growth rate of COMEX copper inventory has slowed down, but its proportion is still high. It is expected that the global visible inventory will peak in March and then gradually decline [52][54][55]. - Demand situation: Traditional industries are in the off - season, with slow demand recovery. Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, AI data centers, and smart grids have strong growth momentum. It is expected that domestic refined copper consumption will gradually recover steadily in March [58][68][71]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors: The US - Iran conflict has restricted the Fed's interest - rate cut space in the first half of the year, and the US economic growth prospects are worrying. In China, the government will promote the construction of a strong domestic market and support the development of emerging industries [73]. - Fundamental factors: Global mines' resumption of production is difficult, and the release of refined copper production capacity is slow. Traditional industries' demand is sluggish, while emerging industries' demand is strong. The global copper inventory is rising, with a high proportion of US copper [73]. - Price trend: It is expected that copper prices will return to a volatile upward trend after adjustment in March, with the LME copper price likely to fluctuate between $12,500 - $13,500 per ton [73].