债券研究周报：美伊冲突下的债市情绪全览-20260309

Report Information - Report Title: Bond Research Weekly Report - A Comprehensive Overview of Bond Market Sentiment under the US-Iran Conflict [1][2] - Report Date: March 9, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yan Ziqi [2] - Contact: Guo Xiyuan [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. After the economic theme press conference during the Two Sessions last week, the market's concerns about fiscal and monetary policies have been alleviated, but inflation remains a negative factor [4]. - The divergence in sellers' views has increased, possibly due to the continuous escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has further complicated the market's bull-bear judgment [4]. - Most institutions believe that the inflation risk brought by the US-Iran conflict has limited impact on the bond market. Even if it drives up inflation expectations, it can be offset by the "stagflation" impact on the global economy, and it is unlikely to become the main risk for the bond market [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From March 3 to March 9, the unweighted sentiment index was 0.21, up 0.07 from February 24 to March 2. Some institutions' market views have turned bullish. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-bullish view, with 7 bullish, 20 neutral, and 1 bearish [16]. - 25% of institutions hold a bullish attitude, believing that the market will be bullish with oscillations in March, and the interest rate may turn downward in the middle and late March, with a trend opportunity in the second quarter. Certificates of deposit can still decline, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are still expected. The net financing of government bonds in March may be lower than last year, with a longer maturity and controllable supply-demand pressure. The low duration of funds, concentrated short positions, and the suppression of risk appetite by geopolitical conflicts, which weaken the stock-bond seesaw effect, are more favorable [5][16]. - 71% of institutions hold a neutral attitude, believing that the loose capital and the decline in certificate of deposit interest rates provide support. The expectation of monetary easing still exists, but the rhythm of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still uncertain. Oil prices and geopolitical disturbances drive up inflation, suppressing long-term interest rates. The 10-year bond interest rate may oscillate in the range of 1.75 - 1.85% in March [10][16]. - 4% of institutions hold a bearish attitude, believing that the Middle East conflict drives up oil prices, the inflation risk rises, and the low interest rate and the reduction in central bank bond purchases lead to a short-term correction in the bond market. However, the market is still in a large-range oscillation. Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the PMI at the beginning of the year was weak, and deflation has eased [10][16]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From March 3 to March 9, the unweighted sentiment index was 0.20, up 0.25 from February 24 to March 2, with a significant increase in the sentiment index. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-bullish view, with 10 bullish, 10 neutral, and 5 bearish [17]. - 40% of institutions hold a bullish attitude, believing that the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is rising, the capital demand in March is weak, the capital interest rate center may decline slightly, the geopolitical conflict provides hedging support, and the "waiting for a correction to buy" strategy of institutions makes it difficult for yields to rebound continuously. The interest rate will oscillate downward in a low-volatility range [11][17]. - 40% of institutions hold a neutral attitude, believing that the policy increment is limited, the expectation of easing still exists but has not been fulfilled. The short-term yield will probably "oscillate in a low-volatility and narrow range." The market will be mainly for gaming around the Two Sessions, and the spread space and direction will be observed after the Two Sessions [11][17]. - 20% of institutions hold a bearish attitude, believing that the downward space of interest rates is limited, the yield is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the volatility may increase again. Inflation and the "stable exchange rate" constraint make reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts not inevitable. New policy financial instruments may push up the supply of policy financial bonds and widen the spread [11][18].