2026年2月通胀数据点评：油价冲击与降息前景

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The monetary policy rate cut this year may be more flexible. If the oil price shock persists strongly, the rate cut may be postponed [1][3] - The CPI reading in February basically conforms to the characteristics of the month - shifting effect. The year - on - year increases of CPI and core CPI from January to February are close to those in December last year, but the month - on - month increase of core CPI in February and the cumulative month - on - month increase from January to February both reached the highest level in the same period since 2013. Attention should be paid to whether there is an acceleration sign in core CPI [3] - The oil price shock may affect the prospect of China's monetary policy rate cut this year. The oil price shock caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a certain impact on China's imported inflation. Although China has great potential to adjust the crude oil supply structure, the supply - chain adjustment may take a certain time [3] - The government work report of the Two Sessions in 2026 requires to promote the overall price level to turn positive from negative and the consumer price to rise reasonably and moderately by improving the total supply - demand relationship, so as to promote the virtuous cycle of the economy [3] - If the oil price shock lasts for a short time (within 1 - 2 months), it is expected to have little impact on the rhythm of China's monetary policy. However, if the oil price shock persists strongly, the policy rate cut this year may be later. If the key shipping routes for crude oil transportation are blocked due to geopolitical conflicts for a long time and the oil price remains at the recent high level, the central bank may wait until the adjustment of the imported crude oil supply chain is sufficient and the oil price has an obvious negative impact on the global economy and external demand before cutting the policy rate [3] - Overall, the report maintains the view in last week's weekly report that this year's monetary policy will be more flexible. China may conduct 1 - 2 policy rate cuts of 10BP each this year, and the persistence of the oil price shock may affect the timing of the rate cut [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Inflation Data - The CPI reading in February basically conforms to the month - shifting effect. The year - on - year increases of CPI and core CPI from January to February are similar to those in December last year. The month - on - month increase of core CPI in February and the cumulative month - on - month increase from January to February are the highest in the same period since 2013 [3] Oil Price Impact on Monetary Policy - China imported about 42% of its total crude oil from six Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar) in 2025. The oil price shock caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has an impact on China's imported inflation [3] - A short - term oil price shock (1 - 2 months) has little impact on China's monetary policy rhythm, while a long - term shock may postpone the policy rate cut. The central bank may wait for supply - chain adjustment and negative impacts on the global economy and external demand before cutting rates [3] Policy Outlook - The government work report of the Two Sessions in 2026 aims to promote price level recovery and economic virtuous cycle [3] - The report maintains the view that the monetary policy this year is more flexible, with 1 - 2 possible 10BP policy rate cuts, and the oil price shock may affect the timing [3]