聚焦“反内卷”，延续行业减量提质

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to continue its "reduction and quality improvement" strategy as outlined in the 2026 government work report, which aims to shift the industry from scale expansion to quality enhancement [4][11] - The report highlights that the industry will experience a mild improvement in profitability due to demand recovery and cost reduction in the short term, while long-term prospects will be driven by industrial upgrades and green transformation [12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes 109 major engineering projects that will activate new opportunities in the industrial chain, particularly benefiting the steel sector [13][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Trends - The steel sector's sub-industries, including special steel, plate, and pipe, have seen year-to-date increases of 15.21%, 11.71%, and 10.45% respectively [6][7] - In the week from March 1 to March 8, 2026, 15.56% of steel stocks rose, with the top five performers being: Guangda Special Steel (13.23%), Fangda Carbon (6.66%), Jiuli Special Steel (2.66%), Changbao Co. (2.51%), and Guangdong Mingzhu (0.55%) [8][10] 2. Important Industry Events - The 2026 government work report emphasizes a framework for high-quality development in the steel industry, focusing on demand support, quality enhancement, green constraints, and environmental optimization [11][12] - The report sets rigid low-carbon development targets for the steel industry, which is a high-energy-consuming sector, and aims to phase out inefficient production capacities while promoting green technologies [12] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with stable high dividends, such as Baosteel, Shougang, and CITIC Special Steel, as well as companies with high technical barriers like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [20] - It also recommends attention to upstream resource companies that will benefit from improved supply dynamics, including Baotou Steel, Hainan Mining, and Hebei Steel Resources [20]