可转债周报：市场波动加大、强赎计价提前-20260309

Core Insights - Market volatility has increased, leading to an earlier pricing of strong redemption. The average conversion premium for high-priced convertible bonds (above par 130) has decreased from 20% to 14% since February 24, with a loss of over 5 percentage points in just two weeks, approaching the levels seen at the beginning of the year [2][10][11] - The main reason for the valuation adjustment is the downward volatility in the equity market, which has significantly impacted the valuation of high-priced convertible bonds, especially those needing recalculation of strong redemption dates [2][18] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, with TMT-related bonds accounting for nearly 50% of the total, contributing to the upward pressure on high-priced bond premiums [2][20] Market Review - The equity market experienced significant adjustments due to geopolitical conflicts, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index falling by 0.93% and 2.45%, respectively. The TMT sector saw declines exceeding 5% due to overseas supply chain impacts [29][30] - The average conversion premium for convertible bonds in the range of par 90-110 is currently at 35.5%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week, indicating that the valuation of balanced convertible bonds remains at a historical high [38][41] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining caution in the convertible bond market while seeking trading opportunities. The current high valuation of convertible bonds, coupled with expectations of strong redemption and market volatility, indicates that future fluctuations may remain significant [3][4] - Specific sectors to watch include cyclical stocks such as Shenghong and Zhongte, technology stocks like Luwei and Daotong, and lithium battery-related companies such as Liko and Zhoubang [3]