高弹性品种,利差仍偏薄
HUAXI Securities·2026-03-09 15:17
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - From March 2 - 6, due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the bond market oscillated narrowly. Credit bond yields declined across the board, with medium - to long - term bonds performing better. The yields of 5 - 10 - year AA+ and AA and 5 - year AA(2) urban investment bonds dropped by 4 - 6bp, and the spreads narrowed by 2 - 4bp, while the spreads of 1 - 3 - year bonds widened passively by 1 - 3bp [1]. - Since 2026, in a volatile bond market environment, credit bonds have shown strong performance, with yields dropping significantly. High - elasticity credit varieties such as long - term general credit bonds and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have achieved good holding returns. However, the current overall credit spreads are at relatively low levels, and the spread protection space for some long - term general credit bonds is thin [2]. - If there is no incremental positive news in the bond market, long - end interest rates may enter a state where they cannot decline further, and the volatility of high - elasticity varieties such as long - term credit and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may increase. If the capital interest rate remains stable after the Two Sessions, the leverage strategy can continue to be used to increase returns, as medium - and short - term credit bonds still have a certain carry trade space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - From March 1 - 8, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive, with district - level platforms contributing the main increment. The issuance sentiment improved, and the issuance interest rates generally declined. In the secondary market, the yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board, with medium - to long - term varieties performing better, and the spreads showed a differentiated performance [27][31]. - In terms of broker transactions, medium - and low - grade varieties performed better, and some entities had active low - valuation transactions [35]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds - Since March, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds have increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment has improved, and the issuance proportion of 1 - 3 - year and over - 5 - year bonds has increased, while the issuance interest rates have increased across the board. From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment has warmed up, the proportion of medium - to long - term varieties in transactions has decreased, and the proportion of high - grade transactions has rebounded [37][39]. 3.3 Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - From March 2 - 6, there were no new issuances of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, the yields of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally declined slightly, with short - term varieties having a larger decline. The spreads widened passively, and bonds with a term of 2 years and above underperformed general credit bonds, while 1 - year bonds outperformed [42]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the trading sentiment of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has significantly warmed up, and the term structure of transactions has changed in different ways for different types of banks [45].
高弹性品种,利差仍偏薄 - Reportify