美以与伊朗间军事冲突何时结束决定贵金属价格

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Report - Gold and Silver" [1] Core Viewpoint - The end - time of the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran determines the price of precious metals. If the conflict doesn't ease, the price of precious metals will be under pressure; if it eases, the price may be supported in the medium - long term. The investment strategy is to wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions, try to go long on the "gold - silver ratio" at low prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of gold and silver in different markets [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US public debt scale is 38.87 trillion dollars, an increase of 103.724 billion dollars from last week. The CBO estimates the fiscal budget deficits in 2025, 2026 and 2027 to be 1.775, 1.853 and 1.887 trillion dollars respectively, and it may reach 3.1 trillion dollars by 2036 due to increased interest expenses [10] - The Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury's general account cash may reach about 1.025 trillion dollars in April and then decline in May [11] - The OFR financial stress index rose significantly, with credit, stock valuation and volatility increasing month - on - month, and safe assets decreasing [13] - The US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is lower than the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. The Fed provided 9 billion dollars of liquidity support through the standing repurchase facility (SRF), making the SOFR fall and the inter - bank market liquidity stable [17] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased (decreased). As of March 4, the rediscount loan was 4.713 billion dollars (increase) and the seasonal loan was 0 dollars (decrease) [19] - US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased due to inflation concerns caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields increased slightly, and the implied inflation expectations also increased [21][23][26] - The difference between US long - term and short - term Treasury yields is positive. The difference between 10 - year and 3 - month (2 - year) Treasury yields is 0.46% (0.59%) and increased (remained flat) month - on - month [30] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases in the US is 0.01%. The weekly rates of industrial and commercial loans, residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, credit card consumer loans, car purchase consumer loans, other loans and leases are - 0.11%, - 0.01%, - 0.14%, - 0.27%, 0.14% and 0.33% respectively, with the weekly rates of car loans and other loans and leases increasing month - on - month [34] - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales is 7%, higher than last week, indicating relatively prosperous consumer spending [38] - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased. The 15 - year (30 - year) mortgage fixed rate decreased (increased). Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and launch a 200 - billion - dollar mortgage - backed securities purchase plan [41] - As of February 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the US is 213,000, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, and the number of continued jobless claims is 1.868 million, higher than expected and the previous value. The US added - 92,000 non - farm jobs in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, higher than expected and the previous value [44] - The difference between US and German (Japanese) Treasury yields decreased (increased). The euro - US dollar (US dollar - RMB) exchange rate decreased (increased) [47][48] - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index increased, and the volatility of the gold ETF decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Price Difference and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased. The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE decreased [56][58][61] - The domestic - foreign gold futures (spot) price difference is at a relatively low level. The gold basis is negative and in a reasonable range. The gold futures near - far contract price difference is negative and in a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [63][66][67] - The 1 - month lease rate of London silver decreased, indicating a possible easing of the global silver supply shortage [70] - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased. The iShare silver ETF holdings decreased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE and SGE decreased [72][74][76] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price is at a relatively high level. The overseas silver basis is negative and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. The COMEX silver near - far month contract price difference is negative and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver near - far month contract price difference is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see for most arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to short - term light - position long - position opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [80][83][84] - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is far below the 10% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term light - position long - position opportunities for the "gold - silver ratio" [87] - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is equal to the 90% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to hold short positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously or take profit at low prices [90] - The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) is higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to hold long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously or take profit at high prices [93]