Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2026-03-10 00:41Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the impact of the US-Iran conflict on various financial and commodity markets. Trump's indication that the war against Iran will end soon has led to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. The conflict has also affected inflation, stock markets, and commodity prices, with different sectors showing varying degrees of response and trends. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump believes the war is almost over, and gold is in a volatile consolidation phase. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the pressure on precious metals from rising interest rates has weakened. [11] - Investment advice: Gold and silver are expected to move in a volatile manner. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that the war against Iran will end soon leads to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. [13] - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to decline. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US short - term inflation and wage expectations have decreased. Trump says the war is almost over, and the G7 has not announced an immediate release of oil reserves. [15][16] - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's inflation in February exceeded expectations. The A - share market shows resilience, but short - term risk aversion is recommended. [19] - Investment advice: The stock index arbitrage strategy is preferred, with a long IC and short IM combination. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - February inflation data exceeded expectations, and the central bank conducted a 48.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a quick end to the US - Iran conflict is decreasing, and the bond market may experience short - term fluctuations and potential long - term upward trends. [22][23] - Investment advice: Consider mid - line long positions in treasury bond futures when the price is low. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In February, excavator sales decreased year - on - year, and the passenger car market sales in January also declined. Steel prices have rebounded due to rising energy prices, but the fundamentals of the finished product end remain under pressure. [25][26] - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events. 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 9, the imported steam coal market was in a state of continuous game. Overseas coal prices have risen, while domestic coal prices are relatively stable. The duration of the Middle East conflict is the biggest uncertainty. [29] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the Middle East conflict. Coal prices are expected to be in a volatile market in the short term and have upward risks in the long term. 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company is re - evaluating an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile market, with potential upward cost pressure and uncertain demand. [31] - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating. The price increase is mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. [33] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment situation. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may resume the B50 biodiesel mixing plan. The price of edible oils has fluctuated greatly, mainly following the trend of crude oil. [35][36] - Investment advice: If international oil prices remain high, palm oil prices may rise, but beware of price drops due to geopolitical uncertainties. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Brazil's corn exports in February increased year - on - year. The supply of corn is gradually increasing, and the demand has support. [37][38] - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is in a multi - factor game. In the long term, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, but the increase is limited. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased, and the production of soybeans in Argentina is expected to be stable. The supply and demand of soybean meal are weak, but it may be strong in the short term. [40][42] - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the Middle East situation, crude oil, and CBOT soybean futures prices. Be cautious when chasing up. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's performance in 2025 was excellent. The supply of lithium carbonate has disturbances, and the demand has short - term support. [43][44] - Investment advice: In the short term, it is advisable to be bullish. In the long term, there is support from the new energy narrative. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a large discount, and the domestic social inventory has increased. The lead price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. [45][46] - Investment advice: Look for mid - line callback buying opportunities on the long side. Wait and see for arbitrage. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the domestic inventory has increased. The zinc price may rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48][49] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Take profit on long positions at high prices. Consider mid - line positive arbitrage. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Citi is optimistic about Zijin Mining's production growth. The IEA suggests using aluminum to replace copper. The copper price may be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. [50][52] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Observe positive arbitrage opportunities. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Some companies are increasing platinum production. The global platinum market will be in short supply in 2026. The platinum price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. [53][54][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Consider mid - line reverse arbitrage for the month spread. Look for opportunities to go long platinum and short palladium. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply of tin may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [57][58] - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate with limited downward space. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump says the military action against Iran will end soon, and the oil price has fluctuated sharply. [59][60] - Investment advice: The risk premium will be reversed after the market sentiment reaches its peak. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG has fluctuated due to market panic and subsequent news. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. [62] - Investment advice: Wait and see and track the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt has decreased. The asphalt price may decline due to the fall in international oil prices. [63] - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of LLDPE has increased, and the price is expected to rise due to rising oil prices. [66] - Investment advice: Buy on dips and expand the 5 - 9 spread. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The price of urea in Shandong has increased. The Iran conflict has affected the overseas urea market, and the domestic market may see a pulse - type upward movement. [67][68] - Investment advice: Do not be overly aggressive in going long. Focus on potential reverse arbitrage opportunities for the 5 - 9 spread. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased. The trading logic of styrene has evolved, and it is still recommended to be bullish. [70][71] - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China is firm. The soda ash price is supported by cost and supply disturbances. [73] - Investment advice: The soda ash price has short - term support. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Guangdong is stable. The glass price may be volatile due to the rise in oil prices. [74][75] - Investment advice: The glass price may be volatile in the short term. 2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo Port's container throughput in February increased year - on - year. The shipping market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the price is in a high - level oscillation. [76][77] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opening of MSK W13 and the price adjustment of other shipping companies.