能源化工日报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, in the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 112.10 yuan/barrel, a 16.99% increase, at 771.80 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 660.00 yuan/ton, a 16.98% increase, to 4548.00 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 656.00 yuan/ton, a 14.99% increase, to 5032.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy: Start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 340 yuan/ton, 345 yuan/ton, 265 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 185 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 303.00 yuan/ton, at 2830 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 495 yuan [4]. - Strategy: It already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by - 20 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 75 yuan/ton, at 1905 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy: Despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - Market Information: The sharp rise in crude oil due to the macro - situation drove up the price of downstream butadiene, and the price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased significantly. The increase in BR was much greater than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of rubber RU and NR. The market is changing rapidly, driven by macro factors and funds. The future trend of rubber is uncertain. Bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China, while bears think the macro - situation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The overall factory has resumed production, but the export orders in the geopolitically affected areas have slowed down. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday. The spot prices of Thai standard mixed rubber, STR20, and STR20 mixed increased, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China also increased [11][12][13]. - Strategy: In the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 190 yuan, at 5466 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5700 (+680) yuan/ton, the basis was 234 (+490) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (-25) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 870 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (+21) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, including 80.7% for the calcium carbide method and 82.2% for the ethylene method, both with a 1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous month. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [16]. - Strategy: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8155 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The pure benzene basis was 1845 yuan/ton, a 1716 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 9587 yuan/ton, a 678 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2413 yuan/ton, a 2322 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 191.62 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan/ton increase. The non - integrated device profit of EB was 661 yuan/ton, an 888.25 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase, the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [20]. - Strategy: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 7944 yuan/ton, a 253 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, a 1925 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1456 yuan/ton, a 1672 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan/ton decrease [23]. - Strategy: The futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 8034 yuan/ton, a 237 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a 1600 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1316 yuan/ton, a 1363 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 90 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 349 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan/ton decrease [25]. - Strategy: The futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 358 yuan, at 9028 yuan. The PX CFR rose 267 US dollars, at 1346 US dollars. The basis was 1701 yuan (+1787), and the 5 - 7 spread was 304 yuan (+52). The PX load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance, Daxie stopped production, South Korea's S - oil 770,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and GS's 550,000 - ton device reduced its load. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea exported 41.5 million tons of PX to China, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 301 US dollars (+20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (-11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (-54) [28]. - Strategy: The load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 246 yuan, at 6316 yuan. The East China spot price rose 1335 yuan, at 7200 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (+22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 246 yuan (+46). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 72 yuan to 162 yuan, and the on - market processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 394 yuan [31]. - Strategy: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 220 yuan, at 4597 yuan. The East China spot price rose 546 yuan, at 4813 yuan. The basis was 37 yuan (+48), and the 5 - 9 spread was 106 yuan (+46). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, including 83% for the syngas - to - ethylene - glycol method, a 1% decrease, and 67.9% for the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol method, an 8.3% decrease. Many domestic and foreign devices were under maintenance or reduced their loads. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure volume on March 8 was 1.38 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 1794 yuan, the domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 918 yuan, and the coal - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 850 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 580 yuan [34]. - Strategy: The foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [