软商品日报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as energy prices, weather, and supply - demand relationships. Different soft commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose and then fell, driven by energy and overall commodity strength. Spot basis is stable, and spot trading is average. Domestic commercial inventory is well - digested, and the expectation of tight supply continues. Short - term demand feedback is average. High - combed yarn orders are good, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season is unfavorable for sugarcane growth, and the sugar - making ratio is expected to decline in the next season, reducing sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. As of February 28, 2025/26, Guangxi's sugar production and sales progress is slow, with a significant decline in sales due to bearish sentiment. Production progress is slow despite a strong increase expectation. Temporarily wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The spot price is stable. After the festival, the procurement enthusiasm in the northwest产区 has increased, and the shipment has accelerated. The inventory in cold storage has decreased year - on - year, providing strong support for the spot price. The trading focus is on the demand side. In Shandong, the quality is poor but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of hoarding is strong, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Temporarily wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR are highly volatile, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price has continued to rise sharply. The supply of global natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has decreased. The domestic tire operating rate has continued to rise significantly. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, the social inventory of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the upstream butadiene port inventory has increased. Geopolitical risks have increased, with cost - driven factors, domestic demand is accelerating recovery, and external demand is temporarily frustrated. For RU&NR, wait and see; BR is strong, and the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity is coming to an end [5] Pulp - Pulp rose and then fell, driven by the overall commodity trend. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, and there is cost support in the long - term. The domestic pulp demand is average, and the downstream paper price and profit are poor. The pulp price is supported at the previous low, and the upside is limited by port inventory pressure and weak downstream demand. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Logs - The futures price is running strongly. The spot price is stable. The overseas quotation has increased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume may be relatively low. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume has increased. The "Golden Three and Silver Four" demand peak season is coming. The national port log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Temporarily wait and see [7]