申万宏源证券晨会报告-20260310

Core Insights - The CXO and upstream industries are entering a new growth era driven by innovation and industry prosperity, with external disturbances showing marginal improvement and key drivers including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, domestic economic recovery, and pharmaceutical industry upgrades [2][8] - The clinical CRO sector is experiencing a recovery in orders, with expectations for double-digit growth in new orders by the end of 2025, indicating a clear industry turning point [9] - The aviation cargo industry is facing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive up freight rates, benefiting Chinese cargo airlines [3][10] CXO Industry Analysis - External disturbances such as the U.S. Biodefense Act and weakened investment in biomedicine have improved, leading to a high prosperity cycle in the CXO industry [2][8] - The performance and order side of the industry are showing significant recovery, with external demand CXO expected to gradually emerge from difficulties starting in the second half of 2024 [9] - The clinical CRO field is seeing a recovery in orders, with head companies expected to return to double-digit growth in new orders by the end of 2025 [9] Aviation Cargo Industry Insights - The closure of airspace in the Gulf region due to geopolitical conflicts has significantly impacted cargo capacity, with an estimated 18% to 20% of global air cargo capacity exiting the market [3][10] - Chinese cargo airlines are positioned to benefit from this disruption due to their ability to fly over Russian airspace, lower costs, and strong demand from cross-border e-commerce [10][13] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to lead to a mismatch in supply and demand, pushing air cargo rates higher [10][13] Agricultural Sector Commentary - The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, which is anticipated to positively impact agricultural prices through increased biofuel demand and cost transmission [23][29] - Major agricultural products have seen price declines over the past three years, but recent trends indicate a potential bottoming out and recovery in prices [27][29] - Investment opportunities are identified in the planting and seed sectors, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech expected to benefit from rising agricultural prices [27][29]