五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term war escalation probability in the Middle East is low, and risk preference improves, providing emotional support for copper. With tight copper supply and increasing downstream start - up rates, copper prices are expected to rise in the short term [3]. - The supply risk in the Middle East for aluminum remains, and the planned shutdown of the South32 Mozambique smelter will keep supply tight. With domestic downstream resuming work, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - Although lead inventories have increased significantly at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rise later [9]. - The domestic zinc industry is weak, and although the Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply, concerns about trade and energy prices remain. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely during the conflict [11]. - The market has a strong sentiment to buy tin, but the supply - demand of tin is marginally relaxed and inventories are rising. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - In the medium term, the reduction policy of Indonesia's RKAB quota will support the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [15]. - The fundamental support for lithium carbonate is strong. With the improvement of downstream start - up, the spot may be in a tight situation, and lithium prices may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking rhythm and other factors [18]. - For alumina, the increase in maintenance and delay in production will reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The high registration of warehouse receipts will suppress the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely [21]. - For stainless steel, the supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain an upward shock pattern [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost support is strong, and with the improvement of downstream demand after the festival, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [28]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - Trump said the war in Iran was basically over. Crude oil prices rose sharply and then fell back. Copper prices also fell first and then rose. LME copper 3M contract closed up 0.39% to $12,919/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 9,925 to 294,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term war escalation probability in the Middle East is low, and risk preference improves. TC is running at a low level, copper supply is tight, downstream start - up rates are rising, and scrap copper substitution is low. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short term. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - Crude oil prices rose and fell back, and aluminum prices followed. LME aluminum 3M contract fell 1.25% to $3,388/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 678,000 tons, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 336,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 455,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply risk in the Middle East for aluminum remains, and the planned shutdown of the South32 Mozambique smelter will keep supply tight. With domestic downstream resuming work, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,200 - 25,500 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,300 - 3,450/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.21% to 16,746 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $17.5 to $1,932/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 285,900 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Lead ore inventory and lead concentrate TC slightly increased, and recycled raw material inventory decreased marginally. Smelter start - up rates declined. Although lead inventories increased significantly at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rise later [9]. Zinc Market Information - On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.54% to 24,427 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $61.5 to $3,318/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,360 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 76,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,000 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory on March 9 was 218,300 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons from March 5 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic zinc concentrate TC slightly increased, and smelting profit improved slightly. The inventories of smelter products and zinc ingot social inventory increased significantly. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply, but concerns about trade and energy prices remain. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely during the conflict [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 9, the SHFE tin main contract fell 2.53% to 383,710 yuan/ton. In the supply side, the start - up rate of Yunnan smelters decreased during the Spring Festival and recovered slowly after the festival. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin was tight due to the shortage of scrap. In the demand side, although the demand from emerging fields such as AI servers was optimistic, the overall industry was still in the post - festival resumption transition period, and the actual demand was not effectively reflected [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has a strong sentiment to buy tin, but the supply - demand of tin is marginally relaxed and inventories are rising. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On March 9, the SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.45% to 136,520 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were stable. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the medium term, the reduction policy of Indonesia's RKAB quota will support the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East reduces market risk preference. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 153,865 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 161,060 yuan, up 3.14% from the previous closing price [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The fundamental support for lithium carbonate is strong. After the festival, the start - up rate of salt plants increased, and the inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate narrowed. With the improvement of downstream start - up, the spot may be in a tight situation, and lithium prices may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking rhythm, spot market premium and discount changes, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - On March 9, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.48% to 2,911 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position was 459,300 hands, an increase of 1,100 hands from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 2,620 yuan/ton, at a discount of 291 yuan/ton to the main contract [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The increase in maintenance and delay in production will reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The high registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the futures market will suppress the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,105 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 102 to 52,013 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,094,800 tons on March 6, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous period [23][24]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the festival, the supply pressure increased due to the arrival of steel mill resources and stagnant sales during the Spring Festival. The market procurement atmosphere improved, but the actual purchase of downstream users was still small. Stainless steel is expected to maintain an upward shock pattern, and the reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,400 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose and then fell. The main AD2604 contract closed up 1.68% to 23,670 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 58,100 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rose, and the import ADC12 quotation increased by 500 yuan/ton. The three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.07 to 36,500 tons [27]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost support for cast aluminum alloy is strong. With the improvement of downstream demand after the festival, and considering supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material supply shortages, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [28].