钢材：黑色建材日报2026-03-10-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black - series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to remain in a range - bound and weak operation. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily cement and building material consumption [3] - The short - term escalation of the US - Iran situation has driven up the prices of oil, gas, and chemical sectors, shifting the overall commodity sentiment towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate. Looking for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and high - elasticity varieties may be a better choice [10][16] - For the medium - to long - term, the report is still optimistic about coking coal prices, especially during the period from June to October when factors such as the safety - production month and peak consumption season overlap [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton (1.003%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,951 tons, a net increase of 305 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.7408 million lots, a net decrease of 57,900 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.238%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 478,116 tons, a net increase of 5901 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.2926 million lots, a net decrease of 106,185 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - Strategy Views - Macro - policies provide medium - term support for steel demand, but the incremental pull on steel demand is relatively limited. The demand for hot - rolled coils has declined this week, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the inventory accumulation rate is relatively fast. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and weak [3] Iron Ore - Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 784.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.62% (+12.50). The open interest changed by - 14,997 lots to 473,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 872,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 36.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.41% [4] - Strategy Views - Overseas ore shipments have declined, while near - end arrivals have rebounded. The daily pig iron output has decreased, and the steel mill profit rate has declined. The port inventory is basically flat, and the steel mill inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes - On March 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose more than 4% in the morning and then fell back, finally closing up 0.03% at 6132 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 8 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose more than 5% in the morning and then fell, closing down 0.20% at 5868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 382 yuan/ton [8] - Strategy Views - In the short term, due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, short - selling operations may be inappropriate. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand pattern, and ferrosilicon has good fundamentals. Future market trends will be affected by the overall black - series direction, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10][11] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Quotes - On March 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rose by the daily limit in the morning and then gave back some gains, finally closing up 4.01% at 1168.0 yuan/ton [13] - The main contract of coke (J2605) rose more than 6.5% and then fell, closing up 2.62% at 1740.0 yuan/ton [13] - Strategy Views - The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" have a slightly positive impact on coking coal. In the short term, downstream de - stocking and increasing supply will restrict the price increase. In the medium - to long - term, prices are expected to rise from June to October [15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8670 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.23% (-20). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 32,429 lots to 353,337 lots [18] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 42,700 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.86% (+1585). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 2067 lots to 55,685 lots [21] - Strategy Views - In March, industrial silicon may see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but it is difficult to reduce high inventory. Prices are expected to fluctuate or rebound. Polysilicon also shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction may be limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [20][22] Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes - The main contract of glass closed at 1104 yuan/ton on Monday, up 1.56% (+17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the week of March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 4.77% [24] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1276 yuan/ton on Monday, up 2.74% (+34). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises in the week of March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 4.77% [26] - Strategy Views - The situation in the Middle East has led to a bullish commodity sentiment. The demand for glass has slightly improved, and the price is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1171 yuan/ton [25] - The current rise in soda ash is mainly driven by cost, and the demand has not improved substantially. The price in March is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector, in the range of 1230 - 1330 yuan/ton [27]