地缘冲突扰动，农产品波动较大

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts are causing significant fluctuations in the agricultural product market, with different products showing various trends and being affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes [1][5]. - The prices of most agricultural products are closely related to the development of the Middle - East situation, and the market is trading the "conflict premium" before the war shows a clear end signal [5]. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Middle - East situation deteriorates, and vegetable oils hit the daily limit during trading. The price trend is highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle - East situation, and the core logic is that "the duration of the war determines the price level". - Logic: The war in the Middle - East leads to a sharp short - term increase in crude oil and its products. It affects oil prices through multiple paths. Before the war ends, the market will trade the "conflict premium", and the price center may rise. After the war, the prices will face downward pressure but may turn to a bullish shock pattern in the long - term due to low inventory and weather factors. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be bullish with shocks. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - level buying strategy [5]. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The volatility of double meals intensifies, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation. - Logic: Internationally, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the spill - over effect of rising crude oil prices drive up the price of US soybeans. The expected implementation of the US biodiesel bill in March may boost the US soybean crushing volume. In South America, the soybean production in Brazil is expected to be lower than the February estimate. Domestically, the opening limit - up of soybean meal futures is affected by the US - Iran conflict, but the supply fundamentals are still loose. - Outlook: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The increase in US soybean prices due to the US - Iran conflict raises the cost of domestic soybean meal, and the market is worried about the delay of Brazilian soybean arrivals [5]. Corn - Viewpoint: Emotional funds cause corn to rise first and then fall. - Logic: The rise in the futures price is mainly due to macro and fund rotation, trading the "war premium". In the short - term, there are no major negative factors in the domestic corn fundamentals. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is tight, and the fundamentals and emotions resonate to support the price increase. However, the increase is relatively rational compared to oils and fats. - Outlook: Bullish with shocks. In March, the increase in spot prices may narrow, and attention should be paid to the capital movement in the futures market. In the medium - term, corn is generally bullish [5][6]. Pigs - Viewpoint: The futures price is driven up by cost and sentiment, but the spot supply - demand is still loose. - Logic: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume in March increases. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction is not smooth. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, and the inventory and weight of pigs increase. - Outlook: Bearish with shocks. In the first half of the year, the industry is advised to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and pick up in the second half of the year [7]. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are insufficient to support the price, and the price follows with difficulty. - Logic: Although the price was driven up by the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, it quickly fell back, indicating that the fundamentals do not support the rise. The short - term trading logic is still related to the Middle - East geopolitics, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle - East are affected, which is negative for the price. - Outlook: The price will maintain a shock pattern due to limited fundamental variables [8][10]. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The strength continues, and the futures price hits the daily limit. - Logic: The Middle - East geopolitical event leads to a continuous rise in crude oil. Driven by the daily limit of multiple varieties in the sector, BR maintains its strength. The export of butadiene last week intensifies the bullish sentiment in the market. As long as crude oil remains strong, the futures price is likely to rise. - Outlook: The futures price mainly follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil continues to rise, the price will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. Cotton - Viewpoint: The price rises during trading and then falls back, continuing the consolidation pattern. - Logic: There is no new driving force in the cotton market, and funds flow into hot varieties. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is in the de - stocking period, and the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance. Overseas, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the next season. - Outlook: Bullish with shocks. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Sugar - Viewpoint: The sharp fluctuation of oil prices causes short - term shocks in sugar prices. - Logic: In the long - term, the internal and external sugar prices are expected to continue the weak shock at the bottom. In the short - term, affected by the rise and sharp fluctuation of oil prices, the futures price may have a shock rebound, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate. Affected by the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle - East conflict, the sugar price may have a shock rebound, and the internal price range can be moderately expanded to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [14]. Pulp - Viewpoint: The price rises first and then falls back, and is greatly affected by the market trading atmosphere. - Logic: The fluctuation of pulp futures is mainly affected by the transmission of crude oil fluctuations. The current fundamentals are weak, but the seasonal demand is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is complex, with both positive and negative factors. - Outlook: Bullish with shocks. The expected improvement in demand forms a positive factor, and the pulp price will maintain a bullish shock pattern within the range [16]. Double - Glue Paper - Viewpoint: Paper mills announce price increases, and the futures price is bullish within the range. - Logic: The trading atmosphere in the double - glue paper market is average, and the price is stable. The supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand is weak. In March - April, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise. In May, the price may fall. - Outlook: Bullish with shocks. After the festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be bullish within the range in the short - term [18]. Logs - Viewpoint: The cost increases, and the logs are bullish with shocks. - Logic: The geopolitical conflict increases the freight cost and the CFR quotation of the outer market. The domestic spot price follows the increase. In the short - term, the price is bullish with shocks. In the medium - term, the price may be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs. - Outlook: The price will maintain a shock pattern. The increase in the outer - market quotation drives up the domestic spot price, and the price will maintain a range - bound operation [19]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural product index) all show an upward trend on March 9, 2026. The agricultural product index has a daily increase of 2.48%, a 5 - day increase of 3.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.17% [180][182].