油价波动主导盘面，基本金属宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, oil price fluctuations dominate the market, leading to wide - range oscillations in base metals. The weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and potential recession concerns may suppress base metals if oil prices continue to rise, but high - energy - consuming metals with supply disruptions like aluminum will benefit. If oil prices decline, base metals may rebound. Mid - term trends depend on the duration of the US - Iran conflict and oil price movements [1]. - Different metals have different trends: copper prices will continue to oscillate; alumina prices will have wide - range oscillations; aluminum and aluminum alloy prices will oscillate with an upward bias; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate; nickel prices will oscillate with an upward bias; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will have a correction but are expected to be supported at the bottom [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Viewpoint: The rebound of the US dollar index causes copper prices to continue oscillating. - Analysis: On March 9, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper had a premium of - 45 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 56 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February, the US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of over 50,000. - Logic: Macroscopically, rising energy prices increase US inflation risks, and the rising US dollar index pressures copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and has declined significantly recently. The long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 has reached a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand remains weak, and high social inventories of refined copper limit the upward movement of copper prices. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to oscillate before significant inventory reduction [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Viewpoint: Weakening demand expectations compete with cost support, leading to wide - range oscillations in alumina prices. - Analysis: On March 9, the national weighted average price of alumina was 2,683.9 yuan/ton, a 10.3 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the alumina warehouse receipts were 337,159 tons, a 13 - ton decrease from the previous day. - Logic: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The production disruptions of electrolytic aluminum plants in the Middle East have weakened the demand expectation for alumina, but rising freight, ore, and caustic soda prices support the price. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations [6]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Viewpoint: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns, causing aluminum prices to oscillate with an upward bias. - Analysis: On March 9, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 25,179 yuan/ton, a 747 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the spot premium was - 155 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 1.28 million tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous day; the inventory of aluminum rods was 393,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton decrease from the previous day. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 335,828 tons, a 6,201 - ton increase from the previous day. - Logic: Macroscopically, the US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated. On the supply side, domestic installed capacity remains stable, and smelting profits are high. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased energy prices and supply disruptions overseas. In Indonesia, mid - term supply growth is restricted by factors such as electricity. On the demand side, the weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly improved, but high prices still suppress demand, and the spot remains at a discount. The weekly social inventory continues to accumulate, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decrease. - Outlook: In the short term, due to fluctuating capital sentiment and the expectation of tight supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation. In the mid - term, with limited new domestic production capacity, overseas production restricted by electricity, and resilient demand growth, the supply - demand balance will turn to shortage, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [7][8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: Cost support continues, and prices oscillate with an upward bias. - Analysis: On March 9, the price of ADC12 was 24,600 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 25,179 yuan/ton, a 747 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the difference between ADC12 and A00 was - 579 yuan/ton, a 247 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 58,099 tons, a 630 - ton decrease from the previous day. - Logic: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply shortage is difficult to improve in the short term, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the operating rate remains low, and mid - term tax - refund policies and tax transfer may still restrict supply. On the demand side, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased. High prices suppress downstream demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The weekly social inventory has decreased. - Outlook: In the short term, with cost support and stable supply and demand, prices are expected to continue to oscillate with an upward bias. In the mid - term, cost support is strengthened, and there is a risk of production reduction or suspension due to policy changes, and the supply - demand balance will remain tight [9]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Viewpoint: TC is still at a low level, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level. - Analysis: On March 9, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc was - 100 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc was - 60 yuan/ton. As of March 9, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six regions was 218,300 tons, a 4,700 - ton increase from the previous day. - Logic: Macroscopically, due to the continuous US - Iran military conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices, investors' concerns about economic slowdown have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has weakened again. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, and smelter profits have not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. After the export of previously locked - price zinc ingots ended, the domestic supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but new terminal orders are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. - Outlook: In the short term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the peak consumption season, so zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, zinc ingot supply will increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices are expected to decline [10]. 3.1.6 Lead - Viewpoint: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - Analysis: On March 9, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton; the difference between primary and recycled lead was 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 190 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 73,700 tons, a 4,900 - ton increase from the previous day; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 55,726 tons, a 1,350 - ton increase from the previous day. - Logic: In the spot market, the spot premium has slightly increased, the difference between primary and recycled lead has remained stable, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries and lead has remained stable, the smelting profit of recycled lead has remained stable, smelters have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more cautious, and orders for electric bicycles have slightly decreased. However, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually increase. - Outlook: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains high. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually increase, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged, and lead ingot inventories may continue to accumulate. However, the high cost of waste batteries supports lead prices, so lead prices are expected to oscillate [11][13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Viewpoint: Policy factors compete with high inventories, and nickel prices oscillate with an upward bias. - Analysis: On March 9, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,897 tons, a 329 - ton increase from the previous day; the LME nickel inventory was 287,418 tons, a 132 - ton decrease from the previous day. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,075 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a 5 - yuan decrease from March 6. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated that the nickel production in 2026 would be about 209 million tons, nearly 20% lower than the planned 260 - 270 million tons. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget is expected to be approved in July, and the revised plan may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30%. - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output decreased in February, and the output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased in February, slightly reducing the supply pressure. However, the overall visible inventory remains high, and the key is to observe the realization of peak - season demand. In terms of policy, the downward revision of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of the nickel balance. - Outlook: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply - demand balance in February was still loose. The high LME inventory suppresses prices, and the realization of peak - season demand needs to be observed. The downward revision of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia supports nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies should be continuously monitored [14][15]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: The price of nickel iron has slightly decreased, and the stainless - steel market oscillates. - Analysis: On March 9, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 51,953 tons, a 60 - ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was 195 yuan/ton higher than the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,075 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a 5 - yuan decrease from March 6. - Logic: The slightly decreased price of nickel iron and the stable chromium price provide some cost support for stainless steel. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month in March. Terminal demand remains cautious, and the key is to observe the realization of peak - season demand. The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have also increased marginally. - Outlook: The production schedule is expected to decrease in February but increase in March. Terminal demand is cautious, and the realization of peak - season demand needs to be observed. The current fundamentals put pressure on prices, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies should be continuously monitored [16][17]. 3.1.9 Tin - Viewpoint: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices have corrected. - Analysis: On March 9, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,775 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 123 tons to 10,124 tons; the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 4,631 lots to 86,498 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 377,850 yuan/ton, a 19,200 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. - Logic: Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin supply. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mines in low - altitude areas, and the tin output from Wa State is expected to gradually increase. In Indonesia, the 2026 tin production target is set at 65,860 tons, higher than the previous quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation is loosening. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains severe, and the supply risk is high. In the future, on the supply side, the tin concentrate processing fee remains low, and the output of refined tin is difficult to increase. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and the consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - Outlook: With high supply risks, tin prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the long - term [17]. 3.2行情监测 - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures' commodities on March 9, 2026, shows that the commodity index was 2,584.35, a 2.93% increase; the commodity 20 index was 2,937.05, a 2.55% increase; the industrial products index was 2,527.43, a 3.87% increase. - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on March 9, 2026, was 2,701.22, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.59%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.40%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.57% [142][144].