有色：政策提振需求，部分品种供给约束加大

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The policy tone of the government work report is steady and positive. Although the annual economic target is lowered to 4.5%-5.0%, the more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy remain unchanged. There will still be structural highlights in the economy. The demand for metal materials in relevant fields will be boosted, while the supply of some varieties will be relatively limited [3][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - The government's support for "two major" and "two new" work will continue to support copper demand in industries, as well as in durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances. However, with the decrease in financial support (250 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are planned this year, lower than last year's 300 billion yuan), the growth of copper demand for related products will slow down. The cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries will benefit the demand for copper foils, copper strips, and cables in fields such as integrated circuits, future energy, embodied intelligence, and 6G. The development of the intelligent new economy and the construction of new infrastructure projects are expected to make data centers a new growth point for domestic copper demand, and the demand for copper in green power will also be supported. In the "dual carbon" field, the demand for copper in power grids and supporting energy storage is expected to grow rapidly [7] Aluminum - The moderately loose monetary policy and the effort to stabilize the real estate market are expected to gradually stabilize the domestic real estate market, narrowing the decline in aluminum demand in the real estate sector (accounting for over 20% of total aluminum demand). The construction of a new power system and the growth of State Grid's fixed - asset investment will drive the demand for aluminum in UHV and new energy storage. The implementation of the carbon emission control system may increase the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum. Given that domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling and the Middle East conflict is disrupting global supply, aluminum prices may benefit [8] Alumina - The two - sessions policy will promote the green transformation of the alumina supply side and the upgrade of the demand side to high - value - added products, aiming to transform the industry from "quantity" to "quality". On the supply side, environmental protection policies will accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. On the demand side, policies will guide the downstream consumption structure to upgrade to high - end alumina in high - tech fields such as new energy and semiconductors, with limited impact on traditional fields [9] Zinc - The construction of a modern industrial system will boost zinc demand in galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy fields. The development of a green and low - carbon economy will promote the transformation of the zinc smelting industry, and the clearance of high - energy - consuming and backward production capacity may ease the short - term surplus pressure of domestic zinc ingots. The future trend of zinc prices depends on whether policy stimulus can lead to a rapid recovery of downstream demand [10][11][13] Lead - The emphasis on environmental protection and resource recycling will standardize the lead industry. Policies on the cross - provincial transfer of waste lead - acid batteries and the closed - loop recycling system may ease the shortage of raw materials. In the short term, lead supply may tighten, strengthening price support. In the long term, the industry will achieve a balance between the primary and recycled lead sectors [14] Tin - The focus on emerging industries at the two - sessions provides strong support for the core demand of tin in electronic solders. On the supply side, the limited domestic tin resources and strict environmental protection constraints limit the growth of primary tin production capacity, and the recycled tin industry cannot make up for the gap in the short term. On the demand side, the expansion of new industries boosts the demand for high - end solders, and the strategic reserve of rare metals enhances the strategic value of tin. The supply - demand imbalance of tin will continue [15] Nickel - The policies support the development of new energy and green - low - carbon industries, improving the demand for nickel. On the supply side, policies promote domestic nickel exploration and the efficient use of recycled nickel, while restricting the release of new smelting capacity. On the demand side, policies drive the demand for nickel in new energy vehicles, energy storage, and stainless steel. The over - supply situation of the nickel market is expected to converge [16] Lithium Carbonate - The government work report emphasizes the development of future energy and the carbon emission control system, making the lithium - battery industry a key support for energy storage and transportation electrification. In the energy storage field, the carbon emission control system and the national low - carbon transformation fund will drive the growth of lithium - battery energy storage. In the transportation field, the substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles has a large potential. The lithium - battery industry will have more development opportunities [17] Stainless Steel - The real - estate policy focuses on the utilization of existing assets, with limited impact on new construction projects. However, policies such as old - community renovation and affordable housing construction may increase the demand for building materials. The policy of expanding domestic demand will stimulate the demand for stainless steel in home appliances and automobiles. With the tightening of raw material supply from Indonesia, the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel market is expected to improve, and prices may stabilize and rebound [19]