格林大华期货早盘提示-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term trend of precious metals may be volatile, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market's panic has dissipated, risk assets have counterattacked, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, which has a certain supporting effect on the price of gold. The statement by the US President that the war with Iran is basically over has suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline, while COMEX silver first declined and then rose with risk assets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.19% to $5148.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.60% to $87.34 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 1141.12 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 2.31% to 21738 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - On March 9, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1070.71 tons, a decrease of 2.61 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, were 15710.91 tons, a decrease of 50.71 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in April is 11.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by June is 33.3% [1]. - US President Trump said in a phone interview that the war is basically over, which led to the dissipation of market panic, a more than 13% drop in the VIX panic index, and a large - scale counterattack of risk assets [1]. - G7 officials said that at the G7 finance ministers' meeting, a broad consensus was reached not to release oil reserves for the time being, and reserve releases and other measures would be taken to support global energy supply if necessary [1]. Market Logic - The US President's statement that the war is basically over and the consideration of controlling the Strait of Hormuz led to the dissipation of market panic and a counterattack of risk assets. The US dollar index fell 0.24% to 98.71, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond fell to 4.100%. The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, and market risk - aversion sentiment supports the price of gold. The statement that the war with Iran is basically over suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline. COMEX silver first declined significantly and then rose with risk assets [1]. Trading Strategy The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]