宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the USDA's monthly crop supply and demand report. Before the report, it is expected that the USDA will only make minor adjustments to the outlooks for US and global inventories and South American harvests. The soybean arrival in the domestic market is uncertain, affecting the oil mills' operation plans and soybean meal supply. The market focus has shifted from the expected South American bumper harvest to the supply rhythm. Any negative news in the logistics link may trigger short - term shortage expectations and price pulses in the soybean meal market. High raw material costs are squeezing downstream breeding profits, limiting the acceptance of high - priced soybean meal and suppressing price increases. The soybean meal market has entered a stage dominated by supply chain risks, and short - term market fluctuations have intensified [5][6]. - Crude oil brings systematic risk premiums and improves the cost - effectiveness and industrial demand expectations of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February to decrease by 6.52% month - on - month to 2.63 million tons, providing bottom support for prices. However, the domestic spot market is weak in following the price increase, and the soybean oil spot basis continues to weaken. The current upward movement of oils and fats is mainly driven by geopolitical risks and crude oil sentiment, and the self - supply and demand drive is not strong. The subsequent trend needs to closely monitor the conflict progress, MPOB report data, and the implementation of biodiesel policies. Short - term palm oil futures prices fluctuate more violently [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5]. - Core Logic: The market is waiting for the USDA report. The uncertainty of soybean arrival in the domestic market affects oil mill operations and supply. The focus has shifted to supply rhythm. High raw material costs squeeze downstream profits, limiting price increases. The market is in a supply - chain - risk - dominated stage with intensified short - term fluctuations [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5]. - Core Logic: Crude oil affects palm oil's cost - effectiveness and demand. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory provides support. However, the domestic spot market is weak, and the soybean oil basis weakens. The upward movement is mainly driven by geopolitical and crude oil factors, and the subsequent trend depends on multiple factors [7].