铁矿石早报2026/3/10-20260310

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of iron ore prices is supported by the marginal improvement of demand after the two - sessions and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iranian conflict, but the medium - and long - term trends depend on the intensity of steel mill resumption, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual fulfillment of terminal demand. High inventory pressure restricts price increases. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - On March 10, 2026, I2701 was at 741.0 (up 12.0 from March 6), I2605 at 784.5 (up 12.5), I2609 at 758.0 (up 11.5). The night - session futures of iron ore i2605 closed at 786 yuan/ton, and i2609 at 760.5 yuan/ton, with an i2605 - i2609 spread of 25.5 yuan. [1][2] - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 772 (+8) yuan/ton on March 9, 2026, and the discounted standard product (factory warehouse) was 803 yuan. The optimal delivery product IOC6, when converted to a warehouse receipt (factory warehouse), was 792 yuan. [2] 2. Spot Market Transactions and Price Changes - On March 9, 2026, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 68.70 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.62 tons, a 60.1% increase from the previous day. [2] - On March 9, 2026, the iron ore spot prices rebounded, with increases ranging from 4 - 8 yuan. [3] 3. Shipping and Inventory Data - From March 2 - 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 2897.8 tons, a decrease of 442.9 tons from the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2342.1 tons, a decrease of 348.5 tons from the previous period. [2] - From March 2 - 8, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2697.5 tons, an increase of 467.5 tons from the previous period. [2] - As of March 6, 2026, the total iron ore inventory was 17118 tons (up 26 tons from February 27), Australian ore inventory was 8083 tons (down 4 tons), Brazilian ore inventory was 5320 tons (down 9 tons), and trader inventory was 11360 tons (up 84 tons). [1] 4. Other Important Information - Starting from March 10, 2026, Shagang raised the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton. [2] - Assuming normal crude oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz at 15 million barrels per day and a replaceable volume of 4 million barrels per day through Saudi - UAE pipelines, 11 million barrels per day of crude oil shipping would be blocked. The global crude oil supply might drop to 94 million barrels per day in the short term, creating a supply gap of 9.5 million barrels per day if demand remains unchanged. [3]