对二甲苯：估值预计跟随油价回落，逢高反套，PTA：估值预计跟随油价回落，逢高反套，MEG：多单离场，逢高反套

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The valuation of p-xylene (PX) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to decline following the drop in oil prices. It is recommended to conduct reverse hedging at high prices [1]. - For monoethylene glycol (MEG), it is advised to close long positions and conduct reverse hedging at high prices. Above 4,500 yuan/ton, the valuation of MEG is difficult to maintain. It is recommended to close long positions and buy put options. After the oil price correction, interval trading of MEG is suggested [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - PX: The closing price of the PX main contract was 9,028, up 358 or 4.13% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread was 418, up 24 from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The closing price of the PTA main contract was 6,316, and the PTA5 - 9 spread was 246, up 46 from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,597, up 220 or 5.03% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread was not provided [2]. - PF: The closing price of the PF main contract was 7,780, up 272 or 3.62% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread was -188 [2]. - SC: The closing price of the SC main contract was 771.8, up 107 or 16.10% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread was not provided [2]. Spot Market - PX: The CFR China price of PX was 1,345.67 US dollars/ton, up 266.5 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 297.3, up 17 from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The spot price of PTA in East China was 7,200 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 05 - 15. The monthly average price was 5,895 yuan/ton (monthly average basis 05 - 40), and the monthly settlement price was 5,720 yuan/ton (monthly settlement basis 05 - 45.38) [3]. - MEG: The spot price of MEG was 4,810 yuan/ton, up 545 from the previous day [2]. - Naphtha: The MOPJ naphtha price was 991.5 US dollars/ton, up 215.12 from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was -4.34, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - Brent: The Dated Brent price was 102.84 US dollars/barrel, up 8.64 from the previous day [2]. Fundamentals - PX: A 1.6 - million - ton PX plant in East China unexpectedly shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On March 9, the PX price rose, and a May Asian spot was traded at 1,334. The PX valuation is expected to decline following the oil price, with a reasonable valuation in the range of 8,000 - 8,500 [3][6]. - PTA: The PTA spot price rose to 7,200 yuan/ton. The PTA valuation is expected to decline following the oil price, with a reasonable valuation in the range of 5,500 - 5,800 [3][6]. - MEG: From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the average daily shipment of MEG from a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 3,600 tons, and that from two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 7,000 tons. On March 9, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.068 million tons, a net increase of 66,000 tons from the previous period. A 360,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Taiwan restarted recently. The planned maintenance time of part of the capacity of a 600,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang has changed, and there is no clear time. A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan is planned to restart around mid - March [3][5]. - Polyester: On March 9, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate estimated to be less than 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 42% by 3:00 pm. Over the weekend, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally good, with an average sales rate estimated to be over 100% [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6].