宁证期货今日早评-20260310

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - Gold: Trump signaled the end of the Middle East war, causing significant fluctuations in international oil prices. High oil prices push up inflation expectations, weaken the prospect of interest rate cuts, and suppress gold prices. However, due to the continued presence of risk aversion, the short - term downside space for gold is limited, and it is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost transfer, and high upstream inventory. There is obvious selling pressure on the futures price, and there is a risk of correction when the price rises above the cost line [4] - Palladium: The conflict in the Middle East seriously impacts the European economy, increasing market expectations of high inflation and economic downturn, which will hit the demand for precious metals with strong industrial attributes. But due to the high probability of gold remaining in a high - level shock, palladium has limited downward pressure and is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term [7] - Aluminum: The Middle East situation affects the upstream ore end of aluminum. Higher freight and mine production control strengthen the cost support. The aluminum bauxite market shows a game between upstream price - holding and downstream waiting. The expected increase in cost provides bottom support for aluminum prices, and it is expected to run with a strong shock in the short term [9] - Lead: The supply of primary lead shows regional differences, with a relatively fast resumption of production in Hunan. The demand side has increased, but the high social inventory suppresses lead prices. It is expected to remain in a range - bound shock [10] - Tin: The sharp decline in tin prices is related to the retreat of the geopolitical premium. The supply side has a marginal improvement in the raw material shortage, but there are still uncertainties. The demand side has not improved significantly. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Group 2: Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The upstream PVC enterprises have few overhauls, and the supply is abundant. The downstream demand is improving, and the inventory may decline. The increase in crude oil prices raises the cost of ethylene - based PVC, and global ethylene - based enterprises tend to reduce their loads. The decline in crude oil prices is expected to put pressure on the short - term PVC market, which will fluctuate weakly [2] - Crude Oil: G7 finance ministers and the IEA are discussing the joint release of strategic oil reserves to cool the oil market. The real solution depends on the end of the US - Iran war and the normal operation of oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. The results of the meeting need to be closely monitored [12] - PTA: Some polyester plants are still ramping up production, and PTA is expected to gradually reduce inventory. If the oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, the current tight supply logic of PX will weaken, and PTA prices may turn from rising to falling [13] - Natural Rubber: China's rubber inventory is still accumulating. Downstream tire enterprises' shipments have slowed down, and overseas production areas are in the production - reducing period. Affected by geopolitical factors, the market fluctuates greatly, and it is expected to be in a medium - term shock [13] - Methanol: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory is basically stable. After the Spring Festival, some downstream enterprises have resumed work. Affected by the US - Israel - Iran conflict, it is expected that more Iranian plants will stop production. With the decline in crude oil prices, the port inventory is expected to decline, and it is expected to run in a short - term shock [14][15] - Soda Ash: The float glass industry has stable production but rising inventory. The domestic soda ash market is strong, but the downstream procurement is cautious. With high - rising inventory and weak demand, the soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Pork: The national pig price mainly declined. The breeding side has a large pressure to sell, and the demand increase is not obvious. Although the inquiry for second - fattening has increased, the actual entry is limited. The short - term price lacks the power to rise and is expected to remain at the bottom. The medium - term downward space for pork futures is limited, with the near - month contracts at the bottom and the far - month contracts stronger, waiting for the cycle to reverse [6] - Palm Oil: With the increasing possibility of geopolitical conflict easing, palm oil futures prices have fallen with international crude oil prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the Indonesian B50 plan and the Malaysian MPOB report. It is expected to be in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions [6][7] - Soybean Meal: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills has decreased, while the soybean meal inventory and unexecuted contracts have increased. The lower limit of the soybean meal 05 contract is strongly supported by the high - running US soybeans. The domestic oil mill operating rate is gradually recovering, but the sufficient inventory of downstream feed enterprises suppresses the upward space. It is recommended that long - position holders leave the market and wait and see [8] Group 4: Others - Five - Year Treasury Bonds: Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, inflation data has increased, which is negative for the bond market. During the Two Sessions, there may be fewer incremental policies. The bond market is expected to be in a triangular shock convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [5] - Coke: After the short - term disturbance, molten iron production is expected to resume. Although the cost support of coking coal has weakened, the room for coking enterprises to further reduce prices is small. The spot price is less likely to be reduced in multiple rounds, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the cost of coking coal [5] - Rebar: Domestic enterprises are accelerating the resumption of work and production, and steel demand is gradually picking up. Although the steel market has not reached the inflection point of inventory reduction, due to the sharp rise in global energy prices and the price increase by mainstream steel mills, the short - term steel price is expected to run with a strong shock [4]