国新国证期货早报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the A-share market showed wide - amplitude fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, while trading volume increased. The performance of various futures varieties was affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [1]. - The prices of some commodities like coal and oil were affected by the Iran conflict, which in turn influenced related futures prices. For example, the prices of coke,焦煤, and crude oil rose, while the prices of some other commodities showed different trends [2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 9, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64% to 3208.58 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 451.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Commodity Futures - Coke and Coking Coal: On March 9, the coke weighted index closed at 1750.8, up 64.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1190.2 yuan, up 60.1. The cost of coking coal has loosened, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up of coking enterprises is expected to increase. However, the oversupply problem restricts the price elasticity [2][3][4]. - Crude Oil: Due to the Iran conflict, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on March 9 [5]. - Steel: The escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact but a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. Short - term monthly exports are affected by about 1.1624 million tons. If the situation lasts for more than 3 months, there is a risk of losing the Middle - East market share. Steel prices may be strong in the short term due to the rise in global energy prices and the recovery of domestic demand [5][8]. - Sugar: Affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the significant increase in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on March 9. There may be a supply gap in the global sugar market in 2025/26 and 2026/27 [5]. - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated widely on March 9, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The US tire imports increased in 2025, and the predicted total tire shipments in 2026 will increase [6]. - Palm Oil: On March 9, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the palm oil futures price was at the daily limit for most of the trading time. As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China increased [6]. - Soybean Meal: Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.46% on March 9. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main M2605 contract rose 2.74%. The situation in the Middle - East and the delay in Brazilian soybean harvesting support the price of soybean meal [6]. - Live Pigs: On March 9, the live pig main contract LH2605 rose 0.36%. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - Copper: The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract fell 0.59% on March 9. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased, and the spot market sentiment was weak [6]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15245 yuan/ton on the night of March 9. The cotton inventory increased, and the short - fiber price rose as the market entered the peak sales season [7]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 2.28% on March 9. The iron ore shipment continued to recover, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a high level. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 8.99% on March 9. As refineries gradually resumed production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate and shipment volume increased, and the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. - Log: The log 2605 main contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 818, and closed at 802.5 on March 9, with an increase of 272 lots in positions [7]. - Alumina: On March 9, the ao2605 contract closed at 2905 yuan/ton. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of imported bauxite, and the supply - demand imbalance in the short term supports the price increase, but the over - supply problem has not been fundamentally reversed [8]. - Aluminum: On March 9, the al2604 contract closed at 24950 yuan/ton. The market is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [8][9].