银河期货每日早盘观察-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to increased volatility in various commodity prices. - Different industries show different trends and characteristics under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: Although the market declined across the board, it showed resilience. The Middle East situation will cause short - term market fluctuations, but the trend of artificial intelligence may drive the stock index to rise in the medium term. It is recommended to go long at low levels while controlling risks [20][21]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The price of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. Due to factors such as inflation data and geopolitical events, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the short term and try to short TS and TF contracts at high levels [24][25]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: After the short - term bullish factors are fully reflected, the market shows a downward trend. It is recommended to be cautious due to the upcoming monthly supply - demand report and large fundamental pressure [27][28]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are expected to be strong, while domestic sugar prices are expected to be bottom - oscillating in the long - term and short - term strong due to factors such as production expectations and oil prices [30][31][32]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The market expects a reduction in production and inventory in February. It is recommended to be long in the short - term and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [33][34][35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot price in the production area is strong, and the futures price is expected to be high - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the callback of the 05 contract [36][37]. - Hogs: The overall supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - Peanuts: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long lightly at low levels [42][43]. - Eggs: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to go short on the June contract [45][47]. - Apples: The inventory has decreased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to the high price of the May contract [49][50]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The cotton price has strong support below and is expected to be oscillating and strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels [52][54]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Affected by geopolitical factors, the steel price continues to oscillate. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view and consider shorting the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread [56][57]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The price fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas in the short term [58][59][60]. - Iron Ore: Supply disturbances have reappeared, and the ore price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [61][62]. - Ferroalloys: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio has decreased. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The risk sentiment has initially improved. The price is expected to oscillate in the near - term range. It is recommended to go long cautiously at low levels near the 20 - day moving average [66][67]. - Platinum and Palladium: The conflict has temporarily eased, and the price is oscillating. It is recommended to go long cautiously at low levels and wait for the opportunity to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at a low level [69][70]. - Copper: The conflict has eased, and the copper price has recovered. It is recommended to buy after the price stabilizes after the correction [71][72]. - Alumina: The increase in freight affects the ore end. It is recommended to go short at high levels [73][76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [76][77]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It oscillates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - Zinc: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at low levels [80][82]. - Lead: It oscillates in a range. It is recommended to buy at low levels and sell at high levels [83][85]. - Nickel: The market is dominated by macro factors. It is recommended to wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize before buying [86][88]. - Stainless Steel: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize before buying [89][92]. - Industrial Silicon: It oscillates in a range. It is recommended to operate within the range [93][94]. - Polysilicon: The spill - over effect of the Iran event is limited, and the price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to be cautious about going long and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [95][96]. - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by the macro environment, it oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to buy after the price stabilizes after the correction [97][99]. - Tin: Trump's remarks have alleviated the long - term war concerns, and the tin price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [100][101]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - Container Shipping: The freight rate in the second half of March is becoming clearer. It is recommended to wait and see due to the large risk [102][103][105]. - Dry Bulk Freight: The short - term capacity allocation impacts other routes. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical conflict [105][107]. - Carbon Emissions: The domestic low - carbon policy continues, and the EU carbon price is affected by the regional situation. The domestic carbon price is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short - term, while the EU carbon price is expected to be oscillating at a low level [108][111][112]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is trading on Trump's TACO. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - Asphalt: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the cost fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions of BU2606 and pay attention to geopolitical risks [117][118][119]. - Fuel Oil: The geopolitical risk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions of FU2605 and pay attention to short - term geopolitical fluctuations [120][121][122]. - LPG: It follows the oil price. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [123][124]. - Natural Gas: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates violently. It is recommended to wait and see [125][126][127]. - PX & PTA: The PX maintenance season is coming, and some plants are reducing production preventively. The aromatics sector is expected to be driven upwards. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline [129][130][131]. - BZ & EB: The refineries' preventive production cuts affect the supply of aromatic products. The aromatics sector is expected to be driven upwards. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline [132][133]. - Ethylene Glycol: The Iranian plant has stopped production, and the Middle East import supply is affected. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and it is recommended to be long in a wide - range oscillation [134][135][136]. - Short - Fiber: It follows the cost and strengthens. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline and consider shorting the processing fee at high levels [138][140]. - Bottle Chips: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline [141]. - Propylene: The main raw material price has risen, and the supply - demand side is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation and be long while preventing the risk of a decline [143][144]. - Plastic PP: The global PP weekly operating rate has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP and short the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [145][146]. - Caustic Soda: The price fluctuates greatly. It is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short - term [149][150]. - PVC: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to go long at low levels and not chase the high price [151][152]. - Soda Ash: The price fluctuates greatly. It is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short - term [153][155]. - Glass: The price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to short at high levels [156][157]. - Methanol: It oscillates in a wide range. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [159][160]. - Urea: It follows the upward trend. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and consider selling put options on the correction [161][162]. - Pulp: Pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the pulp transportation cost. It is recommended to operate cautiously within the range [164][168]. - Logs: The spot price is strong, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [169][171]. - Offset Printing Paper: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to go short at high levels [172][173]. - Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber: The electricity consumption in the Thai rubber industry has decreased marginally. It is recommended to wait and see [175][176][177]. - Butadiene Rubber: The butadiene port inventory has increased. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract and short the spread between BR2605 and RU2605 [179][180].