原油：多单酌情持有，关注复航情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.87, or 4.26%, to $94.77 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May rose $6.27, or 6.76%, to $98.96 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures rose 2.50 yuan per barrel, or 0.33%, to 749.10 yuan per barrel [1] - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil as appropriate and paying attention to the resumption of flights Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light: Spread closed, down $11.67 month-on-month. Core driver is the significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - Arab Light: Spread closed, down $14.73 month-on-month. Due to the dual deterioration of refining value and crude oil price disadvantage, and the soaring structure cost [2] - Nemba: Spread closed, down $0.42 month-on-month. High freight is the main drag despite the significant crude oil price advantage [2] - Agbami: Spread closed, down $1.65 month-on-month. The advantage of crude oil price is offset by high freight and structure cost [2] - Forties: Spread closed, down $1.75 month-on-month. Core drag is the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH and high freight [2] - Arab Heavy: Spread closed, down $3.95 month-on-month. Mainly due to the significant increase in structure cost, eroding the arbitrage space [2] - Vasconia: Spread open, up $20.14 month-on-month. Key driver is the extremely deep discount of crude oil price, providing a huge price advantage [2] - Castilla: Spread open, up $16.13 month-on-month. Core driver is the extremely deep discount of crude oil price [2] - Napo: Spread open, up $14.01 month-on-month. Decisive factor is the huge discount of crude oil price [2] - Maya: Spread open, up $9.61 month-on-month. Benefit from the significant crude oil price discount, offsetting the negative impact of refining value [4] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Spread closed, up $1.08 month-on-month. The crude oil price changes from disadvantage to significant advantage relative to Bonny Light, but is partially offset by the increase in structure cost [5] - Arab Extra Light: Spread closed, down $13.94 month-on-month, turning deeply negative. Core drag is the sharp expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage [5] - Saharan Blend: Spread open, up $1.17 month-on-month. Although the refining value turns negative, the crude oil price turns into an advantage to support the arbitrage window [5] - Cabinda: Spread closed, down $4.6 month-on-month. The deep negative refining value is the decisive factor for the closure of the arbitrage window [5] - Urals: Spread open, up $2.37 month-on-month, with a huge arbitrage space. Core driver is the huge advantage of its crude oil price relative to Bonny Light [5] 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH: Spread closed, down $4.09 month-on-month, turning negative. Mainly because the crude oil price advantage relative to Forties weakens significantly and the structure cost soars [7] - Eagle Ford: Spread closed, down $7.12 month-on-month, turning negative. Similar reasons to WTI MEH, the weakening of price advantage and high structure cost are the main causes [7] - Azeri Light: Spread open, up $1.25 month-on-month. Strong refining value and significant price advantage jointly drive the arbitrage space [7] - Saharan Blend: Spread open, up $5.79 month-on-month. Abnormally strong refining value and significant price advantage are the core driving forces [7] - Bonny Light: Spread open, down $2.33 month-on-month. The extremely high refining value is largely offset by the significant price disadvantage and high structure cost [7] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend: Spread closed, up $0.83 month-on-month (negative value decreases). Mainly because the relative price advantage of benchmark oil Urals slightly narrows [8] - Azeri Light: Spread closed, down $0.61 month-on-month. The price advantage of Urals still suppresses alternative oil types [8] - Bonny Light: Spread closed, down $8.34 month-on-month. The price advantage of Urals, high freight and soaring structure cost lead to deterioration [8] - Ekofisk: Spread closed, down $7.28 month-on-month. The strength of Urals is the systematic factor [8] 5. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri: Spread open. The current spread data of Duri is abnormal and cannot be analyzed month-on-month [9] - Basrah Heavy: Spread closed, down $5.13 month-on-month. The significantly negative refining value is the main drag [9] - Napo: Spread open, up $10.52 month-on-month, maintaining a high level. Core driving force is the huge discount of its crude oil price relative to Dubai [9] - Maya: Spread closed, down $4.92 month-on-month. The negative refining value offsets its price advantage [9] - Mars: Spread open, up $5.04 month-on-month, turning from negative to positive. Mainly because the refining value significantly improves, reversing the negative arbitrage space in January [9] 6. Key Market News - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi on the 9th firmly denied that Iran attacked Turkey, Azerbaijan and Cyprus, and called for vigilance against "false flag" operations [11] - Iran said that if it can be guaranteed not to be attacked again, the war can end [11] - US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran will "soon" end, oil and gas prices will rise, and he will lift some sanctions to reduce oil prices. He also threatened Cuba and claimed to transport 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [11] - According to British media, due to the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, many LNG carriers bound for Europe diverted to Asia, resulting in a decline in the UK's energy reserves, with only two days of natural gas reserves left [11]