格林期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall upward trend of the vegetable oil sector remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of an increase after the gap is filled. The two - meal market will give back the previous gains due to the decline of macro - sentiment [1][2][3] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 (Market Review) - Vegetable Oil: On March 9, due to the ongoing fermentation of the US - Iran conflict, the international crude oil remained strong, and the vegetable oil sector was still strong, with palm oil hitting the daily limit. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared with the previous day, with different changes in positions [1] - Two - Meal: On March 9, driven by macro funds, the two - meal futures once hit the daily limit, but then the increase declined after short - term negative news in the macro - aspect. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared with the previous day, with different changes in positions [2] 3.2重要资讯 (Important Information) - Vegetable Oil: - On Monday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures soared, and the settlement price reached the highest level since 2022. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members cut supplies due to the US - Israel - Iran conflict. The April crude oil futures contract rose $3.87, with a settlement price of $94.77 per barrel [1] - The White House announced a temporary trade agreement framework between the US and India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1] - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March [1] - The US government plans to require large refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending exemption quota, which further strengthens the market expectation that the upcoming US biofuel policy will boost the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil [1] - Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1.3 million tons, exports were 1.18 million tons, imports were 39,000 tons, consumption was 343,000 tons, and inventory was 2.63 million tons; Bloomberg estimated the production at 1.33 million tons, imports at 40,000 tons, exports at 1.19 million tons, consumption at 350,000 tons, and inventory at 2.65 million tons [1] - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1] - The shipping survey agency ITS announced that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February were 1,149,063 tons, a 21.5% decrease compared with 1,463,069 tons in January. Exports to China were 58,000 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons compared with 40,100 tons in the previous month [1] - As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0236 million tons, an increase of 44,200 tons week - on - week, a 2.23% increase month - on - month, and a 7.93% decrease year - on - year [1] - Two - Meal: - The Reuters' forecast for the USDA's March supply - demand report shows that analysts on average expect the US soybean ending inventory for the 2025/26 season to be 344 million bushels, with a forecast range of 265 - 350 million bushels. The USDA estimated it at 350 million bushels in the February report [2] - Affected by the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports from Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. Although the current export volume is relatively limited, if the conflict persists, some shipping will be affected, and the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing potential pressure on the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 would be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase compared with 15.73 million tons in March 2025 [3] - As of the end of the 8th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5801200 tons, an increase of 151500 tons compared with the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 863900 tons, a decrease of 11400 tons week - on - week, a 1.30% decrease. The contract volume was 4.4052 million tons, an increase of 1.0906 million tons week - on - week, a 32.90% increase. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 222000 tons, an increase of 58000 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 6000 tons, the same as the previous week, and the contract volume was 18000 tons, the same as the previous week [3] 3.3市场逻辑 (Market Logic) - Vegetable Oil: Externally, the US president said to accelerate the war against Iran, and the G7 countries considered selling reserve crude oil to stabilize prices, causing the crude oil futures to fill the gap. The decline of international crude oil is expected to drive down the Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, and the soybean oil price rises passively. The palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and the market will enter a technical correction or value - return stage. Rapeseed oil follows the crude oil trend, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged [1][2] - Two - Meal: Externally, the White House said it would quickly end the military strike against Iran, and the G7 said it would release crude oil reserves to stabilize prices, causing the international oil price to fall back and fill the gap. The market is worried that the high international oil price will push up shipping costs and delay the arrival of imported soybeans from March to April. Domestically, the spot price of oil mills has increased, but the terminal purchasing is cautious. The macro - sentiment has declined, and the two - meal market has given back the previous gains [3] 3.4交易策略 (Trading Strategies) - Vegetable Oil: For the unilateral strategy, those who hold long positions at low levels in the oil market should continue to hold, and new long positions can be slightly added after the gap is filled. The report also provides pressure and support levels for different contracts [2] - Two - Meal: Existing long positions should be closed, and wait for the opportunity to buy again after the price correction. The report also provides pressure and support levels for different contracts [3]