观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: High - level volatility intensifies, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil [2]. - Soybean oil: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it may experience a short - term correction [2]. - Soybean meal: Adjust and fluctuate, waiting for the USDA report [2]. - Soybean: Spot prices catch up, and the market adjusts and fluctuates [2]. - Corn: Fluctuate with an upward bias [2]. - Sugar: Fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. - Cotton: Waiting for new drivers [2]. - Eggs: Maintain a sideways trend [2]. - Pigs: The impact of commodity sentiment is realized, and it returns to the industrial logic [2]. - Peanuts: Fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking - Palm oil main contract: Day - session closing price was 9,720 yuan/ton, up 5.45%; night - session closing price was 9,742 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.23% - 0.18%. Trading volume was 892,943 lots, an increase of 363,533 lots, and open interest was 385,075 lots, an increase of 9,545 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,830 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, and the basis was 110 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean oil main contract: Day - session closing price was 8,672 yuan/ton, up 3.09%; night - session closing price was 8,656 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 936,143 lots, an increase of 585,844 lots, and open interest was 656,575 lots, a decrease of 12,368 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton, and the basis was 678 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News - Trump said the US military action against Iran would end "soon", and the overnight crude oil price dropped significantly. Indonesia may resume the plan to launch mandatory B50 - grade palm oil biodiesel in the middle of this year. Thailand will increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 5% to 7% from March 14. As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had harvested 51% of the 2025/26 soybean crop, slower than the same period last year [6][8][9]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Meal - Fundamental Tracking - DCE soybean 2605: Day - session closing price was 4,815 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan (+3.28%); night - session closing price was 4,798 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan (-0.70%). - DCE soybean meal 2605: Day - session closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan (+3.53%); night - session closing price was 2,994 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (-0.40%) [13]. - Macro and Industry News - On March 9, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with the benchmark contract down 0.4% due to profit - taking by long positions and active technical selling. Traders are closely watching the USDA's March supply - demand report. Analysts expect a slight adjustment to US and global supply forecasts, a downward adjustment to Brazil's soybean production forecast, and an upward adjustment to Brazil's corn production forecast [15]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking - C2605: Day - session closing price was 2,395 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; night - session closing price was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. Trading volume was 1,545,357 lots, an increase of 754,521 lots, and open interest was 1,435,081 lots, a decrease of 84,461 lots. - C2607: Day - session closing price was 2,404 yuan/ton, unchanged; night - session closing price was 2,402 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Trading volume was 240,888 lots, an increase of 137,970 lots, and open interest was 412,214 lots, an increase of 3,654 lots [17]. - Macro and Industry News - Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping quotes increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast corn prices increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and North China corn prices increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [18]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking - Raw sugar price was 14.59 cents/pound, up 0.49 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The futures main - contract price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 13 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread was - 108 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the mainstream spot basis was 54 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton [21]. - Macro and Industry News - As of February 28, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India increased by 12% year - on - year. India approved an additional 500,000 tons of sugar exports. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [21][22][23]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking - CF2605: Day - session closing price was 15,285 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; night - session closing price was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. Trading volume was 1,224,720 lots, an increase of 832,993 lots, and open interest was 1,161,023 lots, a decrease of 6,682 lots. - CY2605: Day - session closing price was 21,280 yuan/ton, up 0.35%; night - session closing price was 21,190 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. Trading volume was 24,053 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and open interest was 14,518 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [26]. - Macro and Industry News - Cotton spot one - price offers increased, but overall trading was cold. After the futures correction, there was some basis - locking trading. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound slightly due to the significant drop in crude oil prices and the alleviation of market concerns [27][28]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking - Egg 2604: Closing price was 3,271 yuan/500 kg, up 0.89%. Trading volume increased by 71,666 lots, and open interest decreased by 22,238 lots. - Egg 2605: Closing price was 3,427 yuan/500 kg, up 1.24%. Trading volume increased by 190,688 lots, and open interest decreased by 19,256 lots [32]. 3.7 Pigs - Fundamental Tracking - Henan spot price was 10,480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price was 10,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. - Pig 2605: Closing price was 11,200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; Pig 2607: Closing price was 12,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Pig 2609: Closing price was 13,210 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [36]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking - PK604: Closing price was 7,956 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. Trading volume was 30,197 lots, an increase of 19,710 lots, and open interest was 25,846 lots, a decrease of 5,231 lots. - The spot price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [39]. - Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha general peanuts was around 3.8 - 3.95, and that of Kaifeng large peanuts was around 3.8 - 4.0. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was around 4.5 - 4.6. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was around 4.5 - 4.6. In Shandong, the overall supply was small, and the price was stable [40].