—3月债市策略：外部扰动后，流动性充裕或仍是主线

Group 1 - The overall bond market has shown a recovery trend since mid-January, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.8%, leading to decreased buying intensity from major banks, while non-bank institutions still prefer leveraged arbitrage strategies [2][14] - The growth target for 2023 has been revised down to a range of 4.5%-5%, marking a more pragmatic tone in fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4% [3][20] - The net financing of government bonds for the year is expected to be 13.83 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 200 billion yuan compared to last year, which may alleviate supply concerns [3][25] Group 2 - The actual fiscal deficit scale for 2025 is expected to be nearly 600 billion yuan lower than the target, with the realization of the 30.01 trillion yuan general public budget expenditure target in 2026 requiring a significant adjustment of 2.05 trillion yuan [4][36] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with a significant amount of MLF and reverse repos injected into the market, maintaining liquidity despite a reduction in the scale of 3M reverse repos [5][40] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to find support around 1.8%, and if liquidity remains ample, there may be opportunities for long-term bonds to recover after adjustments [8][14] Group 3 - The current economic environment is still in a seasonal downturn, with the February PMI below the growth line, but the marginal impact on the bond market is limited [6][59] - The recent decline in the 1-year policy bank bond yield to around 1.5% reflects both the controlled liability pressure on banks and the potential tightening of interbank deposit self-discipline [5][52] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate for 2026 is expected to be significantly lower than that of 2025, indicating potential downward pressure on fiscal policy [39][42]