尿素：高位回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea price is expected to follow the energy and chemical sector for a short - term correction and then enter a range - bound operation pattern [3][4] - The overall inventory of urea enterprises decreased this cycle, but the market was in a stalemate due to cold and snowy weather in the north, and local shipments declined [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Urea futures' closing price was 1,905 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,926 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume was 597,997 lots, an increase of 363,802 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 242,697 lots, a decrease of 3,114 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,275 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 230,366.6 million yuan, an increase of 144,821.8 million yuan [2] - The basis in Shandong area was - 25 yuan, a decrease of 55 yuan; the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 135 yuan, a decrease of 75 yuan; the basis of Dongguang - disk was - 75 yuan, a decrease of 75 yuan; the spread between UR05 - UR09 was - 15 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The factory prices of urea in Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged [2] - The trader price in Shandong area was 1,880 yuan, up 20 yuan, and that in Shanxi area remained unchanged [2] - The supply - side indicators: the operating rate was 93.95%, unchanged, and the daily output was 221,210 tons, unchanged [2] Industry News - On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons or 6.62% from the previous cycle. Inventory increased in Anhui, Gansu, Hainan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning, and decreased in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is - 1, indicating a bearish view [4]