PVC：回归基本面，市场短期承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2] Core View - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and PVC futures have returned to fundamentals, with the market under short - term pressure. The domestic PVC market fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 - contract futures price of PVC is 5466, the East China spot price is 5700, the basis is 234, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 111 [1] Spot News - Due to the geopolitical conflict, international energy prices have continued to rise significantly. The prices of upstream raw materials such as ethylene have been significantly increased over the weekend, and global ethylene - based enterprises tend to reduce their loads due to the intensifying supply shortage [1] Market Condition Analysis - On the supply side, the pressure has been continuously accumulating. The enterprise operating load remains around 81%, and the social inventory is at a high level. Although some enterprises plan spring maintenance, the high - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the demand side, it shows a "weak recovery" trend. Although it has entered the traditional peak season and the resumption of work of downstream product enterprises has driven some rigid demand, the demand for hard products, which dominate, is lackluster due to the overall downturn of the real estate industry. In terms of exports, the short - term export inquiries have improved, but the boosting effect is limited [1]