期货市场交易指引-20260310

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies for different futures products based on their market conditions and fundamental factors, including long - term and short - term outlooks, and also analyzes the influencing factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1][5][6] Summary by Category Macro - finance - Stock Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips. Market risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline, leading to a potential rebound in the stock index [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Range - bound. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is over. With the easing of the external situation, the market may focus more on domestic inflation data [1][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak, and downstream demand is slow to recover [1][8][9] - Rebar: Range - bound trading. The rebar futures price is below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The market is affected by overseas situations, and the steel is in the inventory accumulation period. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly stronger in the short term [1][10] - Glass: Sell on rallies. The fundamentals are poor, with increasing supply, rising inventory, and weak demand. Although the futures price has rebounded due to capital bottom - fishing, the upside is limited [1][11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term range - bound trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Macroeconomic factors have a negative impact on copper prices, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, the consumption expectation provides some support [1][14][15] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation. The price of domestic bauxite is falling, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on aluminum prices, and it is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [1][16] - Nickel: Moderately hold long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand at the high price is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [1][17][18] - Tin: Range - bound trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is in a state of rigid demand. It is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - Gold and Silver: Range - bound. The US - Iran conflict has led to fluctuations in inflation and interest rate cut expectations. The medium - term price center of gold and silver has moved up, but it is recommended to wait and see [1][20][21][22] - Lithium Carbonate: Range - bound. The supply and demand are both increasing. There are concerns about supply disruptions, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [1][23][24] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range - bound. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export has some support. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly stronger in the short term [1][25][27] - Caustic Soda: Range - bound. There is an expectation of increased exports under the influence of geopolitics, and the price has rebounded strongly at a low valuation. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [1][28] - Styrene: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory pressure is light, and it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][29][30] - Polyolefins: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally [1][31] - Rubber: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by high overseas raw material prices, but the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][32] - Urea: Bullish and range - bound. The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended for range - bound trading [1][33] - Methanol: Bullish and range - bound. The conflict in Iran may cause a supply gap in China. The domestic supply and demand are in a certain state, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [1][34][35] - Soda Ash: Sell on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Bullish and range - bound. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the price is expected to be bullish and range - bound after the festival [1][37][38] - Apples: Bullish and range - bound. The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay [1][39] - Jujubes: Range - bound. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [1][40] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: 05 contract: short on rallies; 07 and 09 contracts: cautiously bullish. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply may tighten, but the price increase is limited [1][41][42] - Eggs: Wait for rallies to short near - month contracts. The egg price has rebounded, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts [1][43] - Corn: Bullish and range - bound, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [1][44] - Soybean Meal: Short on rallies at high levels. The price of US soybeans has fluctuated, and the domestic supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as imports. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][45][46] - Oils and Fats: Bullish and range - bound, recommend a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils. The prices of various oils and fats are affected by factors such as international oil prices, production, and exports. Palm and soybean oils are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak [1][46][51]