格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - China's overall inflation level in February exceeded expectations, with CPI rising 1.3% year-on-year and PPI falling 0.9% year-on-year. The increase in inflation and geopolitical factors led to a significant correction in the prices of Treasury bond futures on Monday. With the dissipation of market panic, Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 1.11%, the 10-year T2606 fell 0.21%, the 5-year TF2606 fell 0.14%, and the 2-year TS2606 fell 0.04% [1] - The Wande All A index opened lower, bottomed out in the morning session, and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed with a small Yang line with a long lower shadow, down 0.84%. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day's 2.22 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan [1] - In the interbank money market on Monday, the overnight interest rate remained flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.41% in the previous trading day [1] - In the interbank Treasury bond cash market on Monday, most closing yields rose compared with the previous trading day. The 2-year Treasury bond yield rose 1.73 basis points to 1.36%, the 5-year rose 2.55 basis points to 1.56%, the 10-year rose 2.44 basis points to 1.81%, and the 30-year rose 4.80 basis points to 2.33% [1] - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 0.9%. The PPI fell 0.9% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% decline. The CPI rose 1.0% month-on-month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month for the fifth consecutive month [1] - US President Trump said in a phone interview that the war was almost over, which led to the dissipation of market panic. The VIX panic index fell by more than 13%, and risk assets rebounded strongly [1] - G7 officials said that at the G7 finance ministers' meeting, a broad consensus was reached not to release oil reserves for the time being and to take measures such as releasing reserves to support global energy supply if necessary [1] Market Logic - China's inflation level in February exceeded expectations, and the rise in international oil prices drove up the prices of domestic energy and chemical products, which led to a significant correction in the prices of Treasury bond futures on Monday [2] - The statement by the US president that the war was almost over led to the dissipation of market panic and a strong rebound in risk assets. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3]