格林大华期货早盘提示：钢矿-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Raw materials are leading the rise, and it is expected that finished products and iron ore will be bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, rebar, iron ore, and hot-rolled coils all closed higher, and they continued to close higher during the night session. [1] Important Information - In February 2026, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.7% month-on-month, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. From January to February, the average industrial producer price index decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year, and the industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 1.1%. [1] - According to data released by Clarkson on March 6, in February this year, the global new ship order volume was 163 vessels with 5.21 million compensated gross tons (CGT). Calculated by CGT, it increased by 15% compared to 4.52 million CGT in the same period last year and decreased by 23% compared to 6.76 million CGT in January this year. Among them, Chinese shipyards received 131 new ship orders with 4.15 million CGT, accounting for 80% of the global market share, ranking first, and the market share reached a new high since 93.67% in August 2024; South Korean shipyards received 17 orders with 0.57 million CGT, accounting for 11% of the global market share, ranking second. [1] - During the Two Sessions in 2026, many NPC deputies and CPPCC members actively put forward suggestions on the development of the steel industry, mainly focusing on capacity control, rectifying "involutionary" competition, and supporting the development of "artificial intelligence + steel". [1] Market Logic - The prices of raw materials, coking coal and coke, soared and once hit the daily limit. [1] - Overseas iron ore supply decreased significantly again. The total global iron ore shipment volume this period decreased by 4.429 million tons to 28.978 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 13.26%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia decreased by 3.485 million tons to 17.532 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil decreased by more than 20% to 5.89 million tons compared to last week. The shipment volume from non-mainstream regions also decreased significantly. However, the arrival volume of foreign ore increased significantly this period. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased by 4.675 million tons or 20.96% to 26.975 million tons month-on-month, approaching a one-and-a-half-month high. [1] - From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 28.978 million tons, a decrease of 4.429 million tons month-on-month. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 23.421 million tons, a decrease of 3.485 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Australia was 17.532 million tons, a decrease of 1.953 million tons month-on-month. Among them, the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.659 million tons, a decrease of 1.051 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 5.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.533 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 22.695 million tons, a decrease of 3.479 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Australia was 16.949 million tons, a decrease of 1.848 million tons month-on-month. Among them, the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.077 million tons, a decrease of 1.015 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 5.745 million tons, a decrease of 1.631 million tons. [1] - On Monday, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The RB2605 contract broke through the previous resistance level of 3,120. [1] Trading Strategy - The support level for rebar is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200. The support level for hot-rolled coils is 3,180, and the resistance level is 3,300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the resistance level is 800. [2] - For single-sided trading, continue to hold existing long positions in rebar and hot-rolled coils and set stop-losses. For arbitrage, continue to hold long hot-rolled coil and short rebar arbitrage orders. It is recommended to set a stop-loss at 110 and a take-profit at over 200. [2]