生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and domestic sugar mills are gradually closing. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to lightly position long orders [4]. - The news of overseas bleached softwood pulp production cuts supports the current valuation of softwood pulp prices. The decline of pulp prices is limited, but the rebound space still needs to focus on the sustainability of production cuts. It is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [5]. - The spot price of offset printing paper is stable, and the cost support is weakening. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. It is recommended to try to short - match on rallies in the short term [7]. - Macroeconomic sentiment still disturbs the cotton market. The mid - term support for domestic cotton prices exists, but the short - term price may show a platform consolidation. It is recommended to hold long orders of the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - The low inventory of apples continues to support, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to reduce long orders on rallies [9]. - For jujubes, it is recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract. If holding long futures, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Fresh Fruit and Nuts Futures Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Reduce long orders on rallies. The supply - side support remains, and the overall futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The production reduction expectation may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory starts to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. 3.1.2 Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendation - Sugar 2605: Go long. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals in China are improving. The support range is 5300 - 5320, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of hardwood pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [19]. - Offset Printing Paper 2605: Trade within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, focus on the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long orders cautiously. The long - term bullish expectation remains, and the mid - term support is unchanged. However, the rise of the outer - market price has not been confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term price may continue to consolidate. The support range is 14000 - 14200, and the pressure range is 15800 - 16000 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,800 tons. As of February 26, 2026, the inventory was 4.9448 million tons, a decrease of 370,300 tons compared with before the Spring Festival and a year - on - year decrease of 308,900 tons [20]. - Spot Market Situation: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage is stable, and there are some packaging operations in the cold storage. The trading volume in the cold storage is not large, and foreign traders mainly purchase medium and small fruits. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, the number of merchants has increased, and they mainly purchase high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the procurement is difficult. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the sales situation is good, and the price remains stable [20][21][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of March 5th, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is slowly recovering after the Spring Festival, with general replenishment by downstream and slow de - stocking [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven up international crude oil and diesel prices, which may effectively support ethanol prices and be bullish for sugar. - The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said that India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% reduction from the previous estimate. - The total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may reach 31.5 million tons, of which about 3.2 million tons will be converted into ethanol production. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, a reduction of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast. - The consulting firm Datagro expects a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in the Indian state of Maharashtra, 113 sugar mills have stopped production, and 97 are still operating, a year - on - year decrease of 102. - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have stopped production, a year - on - year decrease of 44. - As of the week of March 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 245,034 contracts [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. In February, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton to $590 - $600 per ton. Sellers have announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which has made buyers cautious. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories have shut down, and the port inventory has increased by 205,000 tons. In the BSK market, suppliers hope to push up prices before the northern hemisphere's spring maintenance, but buyers are seeking discounts and reducing import orders. The prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK pulp remain stable [28]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market Last Thursday, the inventory days of offset printing paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points this week. Some paper mills' publishing orders have not been fully executed, and they continue to reduce inventory, but the new orders in the market are limited, and the overall de - stocking speed of the industry has decreased. This week, the operating load rate of the offset printing paper industry is 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points this week [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In February, Brazil's cotton export volume was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. - As of the week of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 10,287 | - 29 | - 0.28% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,060 | 35 | 0.39% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,436 | 65 | 1.21% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,300 | - 22 | - 0.41% | | Cotton 2605 | 15,285 | - 10 | - 0.07% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,520 | 130 | - 500 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,300 | 20 | - 1,250 | | Offset Printing Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,350 | 0 | - 700 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16,632 | - 46 | 1,797 | [36] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 2,063 | 362 | 2,530 | Bullish oscillation | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 380 | - 25 | 40 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 13 | 0 | - 152 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 55 | - 5 | 115 | Bearish oscillation | Short on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4,031 | 162 | - 1,321 | | Sugar | 14,948 | - 38 | - 9,489 | | Pulp | 163,436 | 9,115 | - 202,494 | | Cotton | 11,647 | 204 | 3,843 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned.