合成橡胶：跟随能源价格波动，高位宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Core View - In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to decline from its high level. Geopolitical conflicts may decline in the short term, causing energy - related commodities to follow the decline in energy prices. The visible inventory in the synthetic rubber industry chain has decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. Geopolitical news may increase intraday volatility, and trading logic changes quickly with geopolitical news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market (04 Contract) - For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract, the closing price was 15,835 yuan/ton yesterday, up 1075 yuan from the day before; the trading volume was 278,532 lots, down 21,129 lots; the open interest was 34,580 lots, down 391 lots; and the turnover was 2.157449 billion yuan, down 202.01 million yuan [1] Spread Data - The basis (Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract) was 165, up 625 from the day before; the monthly spread (BR04 - BR05) was 110, up 5 from the day before [1] Spot Market - The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 12,150 yuan/ton, 12,250 yuan/ton, and 12,300 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 1700 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) were 17,000 yuan/ton and 15,500 yuan/ton respectively, up 2600 yuan and 2200 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 15,450 yuan/ton and 16,000 yuan/ton respectively, up 2800 yuan and 3200 yuan [1] Fundamental Indicators - The cis - butadiene operating rate was 81.7643%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,903 yuan/ton, unchanged; the cis - butadiene profit was - 303 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry News - As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80%. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand increased, and geopolitical conflicts led to higher production costs and supply prices, resulting in a significant decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and a slight increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [1]