多晶硅：关注现货成交情况，工业硅：上方空间有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upside space for industrial silicon is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot trading situation of polysilicon [1]. - Singapore has raised its 2030 solar power installation target from 2GW to 3GW and will continue to deploy solar power on rooftops, land, and water surfaces, while exploring new solutions such as photovoltaic canopies for open - air parking lots [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closed at 8,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from T - 1, up 345 yuan from T - 5, and down 90 yuan from T - 22. Its trading volume was 405,785 lots, and the open interest was 251,171 lots [1]. - PS2605 closed at 42,700 yuan/ton, up 1,585 yuan from T - 1, down 2,230 yuan from T - 5. Its trading volume was 19,269 lots, and the open interest was 35,210 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums and discounts varied for different benchmarks. For example, the premium for industrial silicon against East China Si5530 was +580 yuan/ton [1]. - The premium for polysilicon against N - type re - investment was +5300 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22 [1]. - The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 48900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1, down 3000 yuan from T - 5, and down 3600 yuan from T - 22 [1]. 3.1.4 Profit - The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2461.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5341 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 4.5 yuan/kg [1]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.3 million tons, and the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 19.6 million tons. The industry inventory was 74.9 million tons [1]. - The factory inventory of polysilicon was 34.8 million tons [1]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Singapore has raised its 2030 solar power installation target from 2GW to 3GW. Over 80% of its solar power installed capacity comes from rooftop photovoltaics, and there are government - led incentive programs. The investment pay - back period for household solar power has been shortened to five years, and solar system owners can sell electricity through renewable energy certificates [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [3].