华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to macro - emotions [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most others will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The total installed capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity is 85.08 million tons/year. The overall start - up rate of the alumina industry remains stable, with slight regional differentiation [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the production or shipment of some aluminum plants has been affected, and the daily output is expected to decrease [2] - After the Spring Festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand recovers, the aluminum - water ratio has increased significantly, and the weekly aluminum - water ratio has increased by about 8 percentage points [2] - The demand side shows an accelerating recovery trend after the festival. The start - up rate of downstream industries has further increased. The demand in sectors such as power grids, canning materials, automobiles, and batteries has recovered well, and the photovoltaic rush - installation demand also provides short - term support [2] - The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5%, but due to high aluminum prices and uneven demand recovery, the performance of different sectors varies significantly [2] - On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is still in the recovery stage. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum in March is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots will continue [2] - The current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, and price volatility has increased. The price has a slight adjustment at a high level in the short term due to sentiment. It is expected to have high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations [2]