西南期货早间评论-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and different commodities have different trends and risks [6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bonds - Performance: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 1.11%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.21%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04%. The central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan on the day. In February, CPI rose 1% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and decreased 0.9% year - on - year [5]. - Outlook: It is expected that there will still be some pressure, so caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.09%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.97%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.75%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.28% [8]. - Outlook: The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and there are policy expectations. However, the Iran situation has high uncertainty, and it is expected that market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to close long positions and wait for opportunities [10][11]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,140 with a decline of 0.07%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,547 with an increase of 0.07% [12]. - Outlook: The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [12][13]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3,120 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [14]. - Outlook: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is determined by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the price will lack positive drivers but has low valuation. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15][16]. 3.5 Iron Ore - Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The port spot price of PB powder was 770 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 660 yuan/ton [17]. - Outlook: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. During the key meetings, steel mills' production restrictions have suppressed the demand for iron ore. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is at a high level. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17][18]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [19]. - Outlook: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure due to steel mills' production restrictions. Technically, the futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [20][21]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose 0.43% to 6,132 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract rose 0.51% to 5,868 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese silicon spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon iron price rose 270 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [22]. - Outlook: The cost is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of overall surplus. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider exiting long positions on rallies [22]. 3.8 Crude Oil - Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit due to market expectations of war escalation [23]. - Outlook: The increase in net long positions in CFTC shows that US funds are bullish on the crude oil market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts by Middle East oil companies, which supports oil prices. However, Trump's statement that the war with Iran is basically over has eased the tension. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. 3.9 Polyolefins - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase, and the Yuyao LLDPE market rose 1,950 - 2,450 yuan/ton [27]. - Outlook: The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the demand for replenishment has increased, which supports the price increase. The geopolitical conflict has strengthened the cost support. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [28][29]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 8.97%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted to 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton [30]. - Outlook: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of crude oil, which has increased the cost of synthetic rubber. Some device overhauls are expected in March. Although the inventory is accumulating, the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [30][31]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.44%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.38%. The Shanghai spot price of whole latex was adjusted to around 16,900 yuan/ton [32]. - Outlook: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of synthetic rubber, increasing the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in a low - production season, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [32][33]. 3.12 PVC - Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 5.99% and hit the daily limit, and the East China spot price was raised by 400 yuan/ton [34]. - Outlook: The overseas geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about energy and raw material supply, which is in a game with the seasonal off - season of domestic spring demand. The inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [34][36]. 3.13 Urea - Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 4.33%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was 1,920 yuan/ton (+30) [37]. - Outlook: The geopolitical conflict and international supply - demand mismatch have led to a global production gap in urea. China has strict export quota control. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, export and production capacity expansion need to be concerned. In the long term, the pattern is expected to be loose [37][38]. 3.14 PX - Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 7.02% [39]. - Outlook: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed. The PX load is slightly increased, and the downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually resuming work. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. Due to the easing of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price may decline, and the PX price may follow and fluctuate. It is recommended to operate cautiously [39][40]. 3.15 PTA - Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 7.01%, and the processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [41]. - Outlook: The PTA supply is adjusted, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost support is slightly weakened due to the easing of the geopolitical situation. The price may follow the PX and oil prices and decline slightly. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 7.99% [42]. - Outlook: The geopolitical situation may ease, the cost support may weaken, and the high inventory may suppress the short - term price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring overhaul rhythm [42][43]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose 7.02% [44]. - Outlook: The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically stable, and the loom load is slightly increasing. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [44]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.02%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 520 yuan/ton [45]. - Outlook: The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export is increasing, and the spot is still tight in the short term. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of overhauled devices and cost changes [45]. 3.19 Soda Ash - Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,276 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.66% increase and 1,265 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.17% decrease [46]. - Outlook: The soda ash production is stable, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the energy price. The market sentiment is volatile, and it is necessary to control risks [47][48]. 3.20 Glass - Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,104 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.18% increase and 1,095 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.75% decrease [49]. - Outlook: The glass production capacity is in the process of active de - stocking, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The price is under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [50][51]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2,442 yuan/ton during the day session with a 5.30% increase and 2,355 yuan/ton during the night session with a 4.31% decrease [52]. - Outlook: The caustic soda supply is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The price is affected by the oil price. The market has a strong export expectation but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to control positions [52][53]. 3.22 Pulp - Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,300 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase [54]. - Outlook: The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is supported by cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and bulk commodities, downstream paper mill procurement, and capital movements [54][55]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - Performance: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 2.94% to 161,060 yuan/ton [56]. - Outlook: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the demand is improving. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. 3.24 Copper - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton with a 1.28% increase [57]. - Outlook: The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper supply is limited. The demand is seasonally warming, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The copper price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [57][58]. 3.25 Aluminum - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton with a 1.43% decrease, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,859 yuan/ton with a 2.72% decrease [59]. - Outlook: The alumina market has a surplus supply, and the cost is supported by the geopolitical conflict. The domestic aluminum inventory is under pressure, and the demand has not fully recovered. The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong - side operation [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,425 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [61]. - Outlook: The zinc supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is weak. The inventory is accumulating. The zinc price may be under pressure and oscillate [61][62][63]. 3.27 Lead - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,720 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [64]. - Outlook: The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, but the downstream rigid demand is limited. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [64][65]. 3.28 Tin - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 3.51% to 397,630 yuan/ton [66]. - Outlook: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The supply of tin is gradually easing, and the demand has short - term support. The inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation [66]. 3.29 Nickel - Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose 1.37% to 137,930 yuan/ton [67]. - Outlook: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the production cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67][68]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 3.53% to 2,995 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 3.16% to 8,672 yuan/ton.