2026年政府工作报告释放行稳致远信号

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The 2026 government work report signals the steady and long - term development of the Chinese economy. With the support of policies, the macro - economy is expected to achieve a relatively high growth rate of 4.5% - 5% this year. The anti - involution policy will drive the nominal GDP growth rate to further rebound. The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, along with measures to promote consumption and investment, and to stabilize the real estate market, will significantly reduce the drag of the real estate sector on the macro - economy. The report releases positive policy signals, which are conducive to the steady and long - term development of the macro - economy. In 2026, the macro - economic environment is better than that in 2025. With the improvement of fundamentals, positive policies, and the improvement of market expectations, Chinese assets are expected to continue the value - repair trend, and the volatility centers of the equity market and the commodity market are expected to gradually move up [2][17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 4.5% - 5% Economic Growth Target, Emphasizing Higher - Quality Development - The main expected development targets for this year include an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a town survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, a consumer price increase of around 2%, synchronized growth of residents' income and the economy, basic balance of international payments, a grain output of around 1.4 trillion jin, and a reduction of about 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. These targets are set to leave room for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform in the opening year and lay a solid foundation for future development [3]. - The economic growth target is in line with the long - term growth potential of the Chinese economy and the 2035 long - term vision. The "two - sentence target" is an active and practical one that takes into account both domestic economic operations and external environmental changes, leaving room for dealing with uncertainties and guiding all parties to focus on high - quality development [3]. - The expected consumer price increase of around 2% this year is the same as last year. The policy aims to turn the price level from negative to positive, release a clear signal of improving supply - demand relations and moderately raising the price center, and promote the moderate recovery of the price level through "anti - involution" policies [4][5]. 3.2 More Proactive and Effective Macroeconomic Policies, Focusing on Precision and Effectiveness - Fiscal policy: The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan. An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued to support "two important" construction and "two new" work, and a special treasury bond of 30 billion yuan will be issued to support state - owned large - scale commercial banks to replenish capital. Local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan will be arranged [6]. - Monetary policy: It will take promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations, flexibly and efficiently use policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and price level [6]. - Characteristics of macro - policies: large - scale and high - intensity, focusing on precision and effectiveness, and highlighting policy innovation. For example, a 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial coordinated special fund for promoting domestic demand is newly established [7][8]. 3.3 Adhering to Domestic - Demand - Led Strategy, Coordinating Consumption Promotion and Investment Expansion - Consumption promotion: Implement a special action to boost consumption, formulate and implement an income - increase plan for urban and rural residents, promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, arrange 250 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, establish a 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial coordinated special fund for promoting domestic demand, expand the scope of personal consumption loans and service - industry business - entity loan interest - subsidy policies, implement a one - time credit - repair policy, carry out a service - consumption quality - improvement and benefit - people action, activate offline consumption, release the consumption potential in cultural, tourism, sports, and health - care fields, support the promotion of spring and autumn vacations in primary and secondary schools in qualified areas, implement the paid staggered - vacation system for employees, strengthen consumer rights protection, and optimize the inbound consumption environment [9][10][11]. - Investment expansion: Focus on key areas such as new - quality productivity, new - type urbanization, and all - round human development, enhance the growth momentum of market - led effective investment, and increase the proportion of government investment in people's livelihood. This year, 755 billion yuan of central budget - internal investment will be arranged, 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds will be used for "two important" construction, the central investment subsidy standards will be increased by category, the quota of local government special bonds for project construction will be separately listed and increased, and 800 billion yuan of new - type policy - based financial instruments will be issued to drive more social capital to participate in investment [10]. 3.4 Focusing on Stabilizing the Real Estate Market and Building a New Real Estate Development Model - Risk disposal: Focus on the real estate market, local government debts, and small and medium - sized financial institutions, promote risk disposal and transformation and development in an integrated manner, and adhere to the path of "resolving risks in development" [13]. - Market stabilization: Control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions, explore multiple channels to revitalize the stock of commercial housing, encourage the acquisition of stock commercial housing for affordable housing, deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, optimize the supply of affordable housing, accelerate the renovation of dilapidated houses, promote the construction of "good houses", and give full play to the role of the "guaranteed - delivery" white - list system to prevent debt - default risks [13][14]. - New - model construction: Deepen the reform of basic systems, implement financial prudential management, promote the construction of "good houses", and revitalize the stock of assets through multiple channels [14]. 3.5 Cultivating and Strengthening Emerging Industries, Deepening and Expanding "Artificial Intelligence +" - Emerging and future industries: Implement the industrial innovation project, encourage state - owned enterprises to lead in opening up application scenarios, build emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and low - altitude economy, establish an investment - growth and risk - sharing mechanism for future industries, and cultivate future industries such as future energy, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain - computer interface, and 6G [15]. - Intelligent economy: Deepen and expand "Artificial Intelligence +", promote the popularization of new - generation intelligent terminals and agents, promote the commercialization and large - scale application of artificial intelligence in key industries, support the construction of the artificial - intelligence open - source community, implement new infrastructure projects such as ultra - large - scale intelligent computing clusters and computing - power - electricity coordination, accelerate the development of satellite Internet, upgrade "5G + Industrial Internet", deepen the development and utilization of data resources, and improve artificial - intelligence governance [15][16]. 3.6 Releasing a Signal of Steady and Long - Term Development, Chinese Assets Expected to Continue the Repair - Capital - market reform: Continuously deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, improve the mechanism for long - and medium - term funds to enter the market, improve the investor - protection system, expand the exit channels for private - equity and venture - capital funds, and increase the proportion of direct financing and equity financing [17]. - Market outlook: With the support of policies, the macro - economy is expected to achieve a relatively high growth rate of 4.5% - 5% this year, and the anti - involution policy will drive the nominal GDP growth rate to further rebound. The real estate market is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and the drag of the real estate sector on the macro - economy will be significantly reduced. Chinese assets are expected to continue the value - repair trend, and the volatility centers of the equity market and the commodity market are expected to gradually move up [17][18].