HTSC·2026-03-10 02:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 28.17 billion for the year 2025, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA of HKD 3.20 billion, down 15.0% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of HKD 6.50 billion, a decline of 13.0% year-on-year and 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of HKD 670 million, down 32.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is undergoing a structural transition due to the closure of satellite gaming venues, which has impacted its gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, GGR was HKD 6.66 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year and 6.8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 66% of Q4 2019 levels [2] - The VIP segment generated HKD 590 million, down 19.6% year-on-year, while the mass market segment generated HKD 5.46 billion, down 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a loss of HKD 28 million for the EBITDA of the Grand Lisboa, with an EBITDA margin of -3.3% [2] Strategic Developments - The company has completed strategic acquisitions in the core area of the peninsula, including a HKD 529 million acquisition of a designated area in the Lisboa Hotel and a HKD 1.75 billion acquisition of the property at the Parisian Macao [3] - The transition period is expected to stabilize as the company reallocates resources and optimizes operations [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The EBITDA forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been revised down to HKD 4.073 billion and HKD 4.320 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 12% and 10% from previous estimates [5][13] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 2.54, corresponding to a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026 [5][14]