金融期货早评-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The inflation data in China in February 2026 exceeded market expectations. The economic is transitioning from policy - driven to endogenous recovery. CPI may face seasonal回调 pressure, while PPI is expected to turn positive as early as March. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict on inflation [1][2]. - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US - Iran situation. In the short term, it is difficult for the RMB to start a trend appreciation, and the key lies in the change of corporate settlement willingness [3]. - The stock index is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and its subsequent trend depends on the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan policy documents after the Two Sessions [5]. - The bond market may have a short - term trading window, and long positions can be gradually entered [6]. - The container shipping European line futures are highly correlated with geopolitics and oil prices in the short term, with the sentiment side dominating. The main 04 contract is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [15]. - The silicon industry chain is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [17]. - The aluminum industry chain has obvious price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is dominated by the war situation. Alumina has short - term fluctuations and long - term over - supply. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum [21]. - Copper shows resilience, and industrial customers can replenish inventory according to price ranges, while speculative customers can consider volatility - increasing strategies [25]. - Zinc is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [26]. - Nickel - stainless steel oscillates repeatedly, and the market is affected by factors such as RKAB revision and sulfur import blockage [28]. - Tin follows the overall market fluctuations, and the ma60 support level still exists [30]. - Lead is in a weak shock state, and interval operations are recommended [31]. - For oilseeds, the internal market may be strong in the short term, and strategies such as positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be considered [33]. - Oils may maintain a high - level operation if diesel prices remain stable [34]. - The crude oil market is mainly affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the attitudes of the US and Iran [37]. - Fuel oil maintains a strong pattern in the short term [40]. - Asphalt prices follow the change of crude oil prices, and there may be a downward trend after the geopolitical disturbance subsides [41]. - Platinum and palladium are in an oscillating and strengthening state. In the long - term, the bull market foundation still exists, but short - term adjustments should be vigilant [46]. - Gold and silver are strategically bullish, and dips can be regarded as opportunities for long - term layout [48]. - Pulp futures can be traded in the short - term within an interval, and a low - long strategy can be considered in the medium - term. Offset printing paper futures can try a high - short strategy [53]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, but attention should be paid to callback risks [56]. - LPG price is affected by the Middle - East war, and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade determines its price trend [58]. - Methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but attention should be paid to the risks of geopolitical relaxation and monomer price reduction [61]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain a strong trend before the Middle - East situation eases [63]. - Rubber is jointly affected by macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends, with multiple and short factors intertwined. In the medium - term, a long - on - dips view can be taken, and light positions are recommended [71]. - For soda ash, the supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. For glass, the recovery of supply and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space [72][73]. - For steel products, the cost provides support, but the rebound height is limited [75]. - Iron ore has a high valuation, and its price is affected by supply, demand and geopolitical factors [76]. - Coking coal and coke have an over - supply problem, which restricts their price elasticity [79]. - Ferroalloys have cost support, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand [81]. - For live pigs, the price is affected by feed costs, and a short - call option strategy can be considered [84]. - Cotton prices may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and foreign trade policies [87]. - Sugar futures are strong, driven by rising oil prices and valuation repair [90]. - Eggs are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upward space, and short - call options can be sold [91]. - Apples' 05 contract maintains a strong shock pattern due to the scarcity of delivery products [99]. - Red dates may maintain a low - level shock due to insufficient demand drive [101]. - Log futures are affected by geopolitical sentiment, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [102]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The domestic inflation data in February 2026 exceeded expectations. The economic is transitioning to endogenous recovery. Attention should be paid to the inflation impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US - Iran situation. In the short term, it is difficult for the RMB to start a trend appreciation, and attention should be paid to corporate settlement willingness, domestic export data and US inflation index [3]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and its subsequent trend depends on the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan policy documents after the Two Sessions [5]. - Treasury Bond: The bond market may have a short - term trading window, and long positions can be gradually entered [6]. - Container Shipping European Line: The futures are highly correlated with geopolitics and oil prices in the short term, with the sentiment side dominating. The main 04 contract is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern [11]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: In the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [15]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The silicon industry chain is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [17]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain: The price fluctuations are obvious. The short - term trend is dominated by the war situation. Alumina has short - term fluctuations and long - term over - supply. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum [21]. - Copper: It shows resilience. Industrial customers can replenish inventory according to price ranges, while speculative customers can consider volatility - increasing strategies [25]. - Zinc: It is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [26]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: It oscillates repeatedly, and the market is affected by factors such as RKAB revision and sulfur import blockage [28]. - Tin: It follows the overall market fluctuations, and the ma60 support level still exists [30]. - Lead: It is in a weak shock state, and interval operations are recommended [31]. Oils and Feeds - Oilseeds: The internal market may be strong in the short term, and strategies such as positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be considered [33]. - Oils: They may maintain a high - level operation if diesel prices remain stable [34]. Energy and Oil and Gas - SC: The market is mainly affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the attitudes of the US and Iran [37]. - Fuel Oil: It maintains a strong pattern in the short term [40]. - Asphalt: Its prices follow the change of crude oil prices, and there may be a downward trend after the geopolitical disturbance subsides [41]. Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: They are in an oscillating and strengthening state. In the long - term, the bull market foundation still exists, but short - term adjustments should be vigilant [46]. - Gold and Silver: They are strategically bullish, and dips can be regarded as opportunities for long - term layout [48]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Printing Paper: Pulp futures can be traded in the short - term within an interval, and a low - long strategy can be considered in the medium - term. Offset printing paper futures can try a high - short strategy [53]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: They are expected to be strong before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, but attention should be paid to callback risks [56]. - LPG: Its price is affected by the Middle - East war, and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade determines its price trend [58]. - Methanol: It may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but attention should be paid to the risks of geopolitical relaxation and monomer price reduction [61]. - Plastic PP: They are expected to maintain a strong trend before the Middle - East situation eases [63]. - Rubber: It is jointly affected by macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends, with multiple and short factors intertwined. In the medium - term, a long - on - dips view can be taken, and light positions are recommended [71]. - Glass Soda Ash: For soda ash, the supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. For glass, the recovery of supply and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space [72][73]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: The cost provides support, but the rebound height is limited [75]. - Iron Ore: It has a high valuation, and its price is affected by supply, demand and geopolitical factors [76]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They have an over - supply problem, which restricts their price elasticity [79]. - Ferroalloys: They have cost support, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand [81]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The price is affected by feed costs, and a short - call option strategy can be considered [84]. - Cotton: Its prices may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and foreign trade policies [87]. - Sugar: Its futures are strong, driven by rising oil prices and valuation repair [90]. - Eggs: They are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upward space, and short - call options can be sold [91]. - Apples: The 05 contract maintains a strong shock pattern due to the scarcity of delivery products [99]. - Red Dates: They may maintain a low - level shock due to insufficient demand drive [101]. - Logs: The futures are affected by geopolitical sentiment, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [102].