2026年2月物价数据点评：输入型通胀：油金共振

Inflation Overview - February CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month[3] - February PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the highest month-on-month growth in nearly four years[3][11] CPI Analysis - The significant year-on-year increase in CPI is attributed to the distortion caused by the Spring Festival timing, with actual momentum remaining stable[3][11] - Core CPI's month-on-month growth is at a seasonal high of 0.7%, driven primarily by rising gold prices[16][22] PPI Insights - Input inflation is the main driver of PPI changes, with oil and gold prices contributing to a "oil-gold resonance" effect[5][24] - The mining sector saw a month-on-month increase of 5.1% in oil and gas extraction, while non-ferrous metal mining rose by 7.1%[26] Market Trends - The report highlights a divergence in industrial prices across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, with external demand for non-ferrous metals remaining strong[26] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor input inflation risks against the backdrop of U.S. re-inflation and geopolitical tensions[30] Risk Considerations - There is a potential risk of internal "stagflation" due to input-driven inflation[31]