伊朗的战火能让油脂“烧”多久？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil: Volatile; Rapeseed oil: Volatile; Soybean oil: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soaring international oil prices triggered by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran have led to a significant increase in the oil and fat market. The underlying reasons for the rise of the three major domestic oils and fats are different, and their future trends depend on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict persists, palm oil may continue to rise, rapeseed oil's near - month contracts will remain strong, and soybean oil will also show an upward trend. If the conflict eases, the oil and fat market will experience a significant correction [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Geopolitical Conflict Intensifies, Driving a Sharp Rise in the Oil and Fat Market - After the US and Israel announced an attack on Iran, international oil and diesel prices soared, leading the oil and fat market to start making up for the increase from the second half of last week. From March 5th to March 9th, the palm oil 05 contract rose 898 points, the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 763 points, and the soybean oil 05 contract rose 618 points [11] - POGO spread significantly shrank, and biodiesel blending profit turned positive: The continuous sharp rise in diesel prices led to a rapid shrinkage and negative turn of the POGO price in a short period. The price transmission mechanism from diesel to palm oil is complex, and it takes time for the market to react. The soaring diesel price has increased the possibility of Indonesia significantly raising the diesel reference price in April, which will boost the demand for palm oil. The current situation also increases the likelihood of Indonesia advancing the B50 plan, which is expected to significantly reduce palm oil inventory in 2026 [12][13][18] - The obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about the domestic rapeseed oil supply: After China imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed in March, the import profit of Canadian rapeseed is average. Before May, China's rapeseed oil supply mainly relies on Russian and UAE rapeseed oil. However, due to the conflict, the UAE rapeseed oil cannot be transported to China, which will further tighten the supply and accelerate the destocking process [19][20] 2. Outlook for the Future Prices of Oils and Fats - The short - term core factor for the future trend of the oil and fat market is the development of the Iranian situation. For palm oil, the diesel price is a key influencing factor. As long as the diesel price does not fall significantly below $1000 per ton, palm oil prices will have obvious bottom support. For rapeseed oil, the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. The improvement of the situation in the Strait can ease the tight supply expectation. Soybean oil is less affected by diesel prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it will also be influenced by factors such as the strengthening of US soybean oil and rising freight rates, and is expected to remain strong before the conflict eases [28][30]