TACO再现，烧碱挤出风险溢价

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish view on caustic soda and suggests long - term short - selling on rallies [6] 2. Core View - The Middle East tension has eased, the expectation of tightened crude oil supply has been alleviated, and caustic soda is squeezing out the risk premium. The market is expected to return to fundamental pricing [5] - The domestic caustic soda market shows a pattern of "high supply and weak demand". The production side is in the profit cycle, with high - speed capacity expansion and short - term high - level operation, while the downstream alumina operation is weak and demand needs further recovery [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Event & Market - G7 planned to release reserves to ease crude oil supply shortage, Trump announced the end of the Iran war, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard set conditions for free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East tension has eased, Brent crude has dropped sharply, and the spread of near - month to first - continuous contract has fallen from last week's high of $5.57 to around $4 [5] - As of 9:45 a.m., the SH2605 contract of caustic soda recorded an 8% decline, approaching the daily limit down [5] Fundamentals - Affected by the Middle East situation, there was an expectation of expanded exports to East and Southeast Asia, but the recent (50% - 32%) liquid caustic soda spread is at a neutral level, indicating limited growth in caustic soda demand relying on long - distance transportation (such as exports) [5] - With the reversal of the situation and the easing of crude oil supply, the export expectation of caustic soda may cool down, and the market will return to fundamental pricing [5] - The domestic caustic soda market has high supply as production is in the profit cycle, with high - speed capacity expansion and short - term high - level operation, and weak demand as downstream alumina operation is weak [5] Cost - Benefit Tracking in Shandong - In Shandong, the comprehensive cost of caustic soda production is 1934.73 yuan/ton, the spot price is 2046.88 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 112.15 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract is 2442.00 yuan/ton, and the futures profit is 507.27 yuan/ton [4] Operation Suggestion - In the short term, the market will return to fundamental pricing, but be vigilant against the recurrence of the Middle East situation. Pay attention to the actual navigation situation, crude oil price, and spread trends [6] - Maintain a bearish view on caustic soda and consider long - term short - selling on rallies. However, be cautious in the short - term due to emotional fluctuations. Follow the exchange's risk - control measures and control positions rationally [6]