国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，能源品全部上涨原油等多品种涨停

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends the allocation of TS and TF [1] Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict stage affects market expectations of inflation and the economy, and the Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset portfolio construction and manage the positions of risk assets in the short term [1] - The market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to the verification of real - world data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with shipping futures leading the gains, and energy, chemical, and other sectors also rising. Some varieties such as crude oil and asphalt had significant increases. However, basic metals and precious metals mostly declined [1] Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas: The stage of geopolitical conflict is crucial for the market's inflation and economic expectations, and the Fed will act when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended for asset allocation [1] - Domestic: After the release of the report, the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to data verification [1] Asset Views - Short - term: Downgrade the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommend the allocation of TS and TF. Stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by monetary tightening expectations [1] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - Financial: Stock index futures, index options, and bond futures are expected to be in a shock state. Risk factors still exist, and attention should be paid to factors such as incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks [4] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate. Inflation expectations suppress interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to US fundamental data, Fed policies, and geopolitical trends [4] - Shipping: The freight rate of the European line in the second half of March stopped falling and rose, and the Middle East route is seeking alternative routes. The market is expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events and shipping traffic [4] - Black Building Materials: Affected by geopolitical risks, costs are rising. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as mine production and policy dynamics [4] - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and most basic metals are in a wide - range shock. Some varieties such as aluminum and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances and policy changes [4] - Energy and Chemicals: Geopolitical situations may lead to production cuts in oil - producing countries, and aromatics have a demand for price increases. Most varieties are expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events [4][5] - Agriculture: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the market, and agricultural products fluctuate greatly. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as geopolitical events, weather, and policies [5]