——2月通胀数据解读：不同情境下油价对通胀的冲击

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of crude oil prices on inflation is mainly reflected in PPI, with a relatively limited impact on CPI. Every 10% adjustment in crude oil prices may drive a 0.35 - percentage - point change in PPI and a 0.1 - percentage - point change in CPI [1][10][12]. - Depending on the scenarios of the US - Iran situation (easing, maintaining, or intensifying), with assumed oil price centers of $80, $100, and $120 per barrel respectively, the PPI may turn positive year - on - year in March ahead of schedule when the oil price center is above $80 per barrel, and the CPI year - on - year central value may be driven up by 0.1 - 0.6 pct but is unlikely to exceed 2% [1][2]. - Short - term inflation expectations trading and good inflation readings may suppress bond market sentiment. However, significant oil price increases as an imported inflation factor are difficult to change the monetary policy direction and bond market trend [2][22][28]. - The current bond market adjustment is considered a temporary shock rather than a new round of continuous adjustment. New funds can gradually invest in 10y treasury bonds, and existing assets can be held, with the annual coupon strategy remaining the main line [3][30][31]. Summary According to the Directory I. Different Scenarios of the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation (1) Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation Data - The impact of crude oil prices on inflation is mainly on PPI, and every 10% adjustment in oil prices may drive a 0.35 - percentage - point change in PPI. The elasticity of oil prices to PPI is stable around 0.35 [1][10][16]. - The impact of crude oil prices on CPI is relatively limited, and every 10% adjustment in oil prices may drive a 0.1 - percentage - point change in CPI. Domestic oil price fluctuations are significantly smaller than those of overseas crude oil prices [12][13]. - Under different scenarios of the US - Iran situation, with oil price centers of $80, $100, and $120 per barrel, the PPI may turn positive year - on - year in March ahead of schedule when the oil price center is above $80 per barrel, and the CPI year - on - year central value may be driven up by 0.1 - 0.6 pct but is unlikely to exceed 2% [16][19][20]. (2) Impact of Oil Prices on the Bond Market - Short - term inflation expectations trading and good inflation readings may suppress bond market sentiment. When the PPI month - on - month approaches or exceeds 0.5%, it may disturb bond market sentiment [22]. - Historically, when PPI year - on - year turns from negative to positive driven by supply - side and imported inflation, the upward range of 10y treasury bonds is usually within 10bp [25]. - However, significant oil price increases as an imported inflation factor are difficult to change the monetary policy direction and bond market trend. Geopolitical events in oil - exporting countries have a relatively neutral impact on 10y treasury bonds [28]. - The current bond market adjustment is a temporary shock. New funds can gradually invest in 10y treasury bonds at around 1.85%, and existing assets can be held with the annual coupon strategy as the main line [30][31]. II. February CPI: A Combination of Strong Services, Oil Prices, and Gold Prices, along with the Chinese New Year Date Shift, Led to a 1.3% Year - on - Year Increase (1) Food Items - The CPI food price increased by 1.7% in February, driving the CPI up by about 0.33 pct. Pork prices rose by 4%, and livestock meat prices rose by 2.6%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.11 pct [36]. - Fresh produce prices were slightly weaker than the seasonality. Aquatic products, eggs, and fresh fruits prices rose, but fresh vegetable prices decreased slightly by - 0.1%, and overall, fresh produce prices drove the CPI up by about 0.22 pct [36]. (2) Non - food Items - The CPI non - food item month - on - month increased above the seasonality to 0.8% in February, driving the CPI up by about 0.66 pct [42]. - Energy: Rising oil prices affected the CPI to rise by about 0.1 pct. In February 2026, domestic oil prices followed overseas adjustments, and the CPI transportation fuel prices rose by 2.8% [42]. - Core consumer goods: The impact on the CPI increase was about 0.02 pct, with the overall change being relatively limited, mainly contributed by the gold price. Gold prices may have affected the CPI to rise by about 0.04 pct, while household appliances decreased significantly, dragging down the CPI [44]. - Services: Prices increased above the seasonality, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.54 pct, accounting for more than 50% of the monthly contribution. Travel - related service prices increased above the seasonality due to the long Chinese New Year, and other service consumption also benefited from the festival effect [49]. III. February PPI: Obvious Imported Inflation, with a Month - on - Month Increase Maintained at 0.4% and a Narrowed Year - on - Year Decline to - 0.9% (1) Overall - The PPI month - on - month increase was maintained at 0.4% in February, and the mining industry became the leading sector for price increases again. The production materials price increased by 0.5%, and the living materials price remained flat [51]. (2) By Industry - In February 2025, the number of industries with rising prices among industrial producers decreased from 13 to 11 [56]. - Support factors: Imported non - ferrous metal and crude oil industrial chains, as well as high - end manufacturing such as electrical machinery and electronic equipment [57][63]. - Drag factors: Seasonal price - cutting factors. During the production off - season, coal and power prices decreased [63].