集运指数（欧线）：地缘情绪主导，波动放大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading volume of the container shipping index (European line) was significantly affected by geopolitical news, showing a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts. The 2604 - 2608 contracts closed up 14.6% - 20%, and the 2609 and far - term contracts closed up 10% - 12%. The impact of geopolitical events on the spot market of container shipping European lines can be divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The overall strategy is to remain on the sidelines [10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For EC2604, the closing price was 1,892.2, with a daily decline of 4.43%, trading volume of 85,170, open interest of 33,995, a change of - 2,684 in open interest, and a trading - to - open - interest ratio of 2.51 (compared to 4.19 the previous day). For EC2606, the closing price was 2,161.4, with a daily increase of 10.40%, trading volume of 17,081, open interest of 20,319, a change of 149 in open interest, and a trading - to - open - interest ratio of 0.84 (compared to 1.51 the previous day). Similar data is provided for EC2608 and EC2610 [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,463.40 points, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; for the US - West route, it was 1,045.08 points, with a weekly decline of 6.0%. The SCFI for the European route was $1,452/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 2.3%; for the US - West route, it was $1,940/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.5% [1]. - Forward Freight Rates: Different carriers such as Maersk, MSC, etc., offered different prices for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'GP was $2,430 and for a 20'GP was $1,445 [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.95, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.91 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Scheduled Voyages and Adjustments: In March, there were 11 blank sailings and 2 additional voyages; in April, there was 1 blank sailing, 3 undetermined voyages, and CMA added an OCR route. The weekly shipping capacity (in 10,000 TEU) from March 7 - April 26 showed fluctuations, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was also presented for different alliances [5]. - Supply - Side Adjustments: In the second half of March, COSCO transferred two ships from the Middle - East route to the Northwest - Europe AEU7 route. After the adjustment, the average weekly shipping capacity in the second half of March increased from 327,000 TEU to 338,000 TEU, a 31% increase compared to the first half of the month. The static shipping capacity in April was 322,000 TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10% [11]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical events included discussions on cease - fire conditions by the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, statements by US President Trump on the Iran issue, an explosion at a US military base in Bahrain, and military actions by the Israeli Defense Forces against Tehran [8][9][14]. 3.4 Market Analysis - Demand Side: Cargo volume is gradually recovering with resumption of work and production. There is no sign of large - scale missed bookings in the market. In the medium - to - long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from macro - negative feedback [10]. - Supply Side: The transfer of ships from the Middle - East route to the European line increased shipping capacity. If the risk of ship attacks in the Hormuz/Mandeb Strait remains high, it may lead to a global shortage of effective shipping capacity and potential congestion at Southeast Asian hub ports [11]. - Freight Rates: In the third week of March, some shipping companies raised freight rates, and the loading rate support was not strong. In April, shipping companies usually try to raise rates. If the war continues and the passage risk in the Hormuz/Mandeb Strait does not decrease, the probability of a successful rate increase may increase. Oil price increases also prompt shipping companies to levy emergency fuel surcharges [12]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Short - term trading volume is greatly affected by geopolitical emotions. Pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production, Maersk's cabin opening in the fourth week of March, and other shipping companies' follow - up on fuel surcharges. Be vigilant about the recurrence of geopolitical emotions. Overall, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [15].