光大期货能化商品日报（2026年3月10日）-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][3][4][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the pricing of crude oil. In the current week, oil prices will still fluctuate significantly [1][3] - The increase in asphalt prices is driven by the rise in oil prices. The geopolitical conflict restricts the procurement of heavy - crude oil, but the terminal demand has not started substantially, resulting in a "strong - cost and weak - demand" game in the asphalt market, and the increase may be less than that of other oil products [3] - The prices of polyester products have risen, and the cost increase is the main concern. If the geopolitical situation continues to ferment, there is still room for upward movement in polyester varieties, but factors such as the new Iranian leadership and the G7's discussion on releasing strategic oil reserves may cause oil price adjustments [4] - Rubber is in the low - production season at home and abroad, and the probability of a smooth tapping in China in mid - to - late March is relatively high. The downstream start - up repair power is strong, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate. The price of butadiene rubber is strong due to the sharp rise in raw materials [7] - The supply of methanol is in a high - level shock, and the demand is at a low level. The decline in arrivals in March will support the price, but the low load of MTO devices will put pressure on inventory reduction. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [7] - For polyolefins, the planned maintenance of upstream devices increases, and the downstream demand has room for growth. The market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks increase volatility [8] - For PVC, the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - method production, but the profit of the calcium - carbide method is strong. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand will gradually recover, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, the WTI April contract rose by $4.26 to $94.77 per barrel, a 4.26% increase; the Brent May contract rose by $6.27 to $98.96 per barrel, a 6.76% increase; SC2604 closed at 749.1 yuan per barrel, up 2.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.33% increase [1] - The statements from Iran, the US President, and the Russian President have different impacts on oil prices. The conflict situation and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz need time to be observed, and oil prices will fluctuate significantly this week [1][3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil and Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 8.99% to 4075 yuan per ton on Monday, driven by the sharp rise in oil prices [3] - Geopolitical conflicts restrict the procurement channels of heavy - crude oil for local refineries, and the raw - material arrival cost continues to rise, which may restrict the asphalt production plan. However, the terminal demand has not started substantially, resulting in slow digestion of social inventory [3] 3.1.3 Polyester - Many polyester varieties had their daily limit up on the previous trading day. TA605 closed at 6316 yuan per ton, up 7%; EG2605 closed at 4597 yuan per ton, up 5.03%; the PX futures main contract 605 closed at 9028 yuan per ton, up 4.13% [4] - The cost increase is the main concern. Whether polyester varieties can continue to rise depends on factors such as geopolitical development, the start - up situation of domestic suppliers, and downstream feedback [4] 3.1.4 Rubber - On Monday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. The price of butadiene increased significantly, with the enterprise ex - factory price increasing by 2900 - 3400 yuan per ton, a 22% - 25% increase from the previous day [7] - Rubber is in the low - production season, and the probability of a smooth tapping in China in mid - to - late March is relatively high. The downstream start - up repair power is strong, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [7] 3.1.5 Methanol - On Monday, the Taicang spot price was 2865 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2360 yuan per ton. The supply is in a high - level shock, and the demand is at a low level [7] - The decline in arrivals in March will support the price, but the low load of MTO devices will put pressure on inventory reduction. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [7] 3.1.6 Polyolefins and PVC - For polyolefins, the planned maintenance of upstream devices increases, and the downstream demand has room for growth. The market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks increase volatility [8] - The price of PVC in the East, North, and South China markets has been significantly increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - method production, but the profit of the calcium - carbide method is strong. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand will gradually recover, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 9 and 6, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantile information [9] 3.3 Market News - The G7 finance ministers have stated that they are ready to take necessary measures, including releasing reserves, to support global energy supply and will continue to monitor the situation [13] - Russian President Putin said that an energy crisis has arrived, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran has triggered a global energy crisis. The oil production relying on the Strait of Hormuz may stop completely [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report provides the price trend charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][17][19][21][24][25][26] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It provides the basis trend charts of main contracts of various products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [31][32][35][37][38] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [39][41][44][45][47][49][50] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It shows the spread and ratio trend charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low - sulfur spreads, etc. [53][55][57][58] - 4.5 Production Profits: It provides the production profit trend charts of some products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [59][60][62] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including the deputy director Zhong Meiyan, the energy - chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experience, honors, and professional qualifications [65][66][67][68] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postcode is 200127 [70]