两会、海外冲突与通胀的再思考

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in global oil prices, which in turn may drive up PPI. However, the impact on CPI is relatively limited. The relationship between PPI and interest rates is complex, and historical data shows that the impact of PPI on interest rates varies in different periods. Currently, the bond market lacks a clear trading logic, and inflation factors may affect short - term pricing [1][2][30]. - The fiscal policy strength is not weak when considering new policy - based financial instruments. The reduction of the generalized deficit rate is small. Local governments face difficulties in leveraging, while the central government is increasing its leverage. The debt - reduction progress of financing platforms is over 70%, and the bottom - line risk of local government debt is under control. The government is relatively satisfied with the current broad - spectrum interest rate level [31][37][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to View Inflation and the Bond Market? - As of March 9, the Strait of Hormuz remained unnavigable, with a large number of ships congested. Brent crude oil futures prices soared above $110 per barrel. Historically, rising oil and commodity prices lead to an increase in PPI, while the impact on CPI is relatively small [12][15][18]. - PPI has a greater impact on interest rates than CPI. Historically, when PPI reverses its trend or turns from negative to positive, it may put short - term pressure on interest rates. However, in the last two periods of continuous PPI increase, the impact on interest rates was relatively small. Currently, the market lacks a trading logic, and inflation factors may affect short - term pricing [20][21][30]. - There are also some trend - improving factors in inflation, such as the rising prices of non - ferrous metals driven by AI demand and the support of core inflation due to the slowdown in the decline of second - hand housing prices [25][30]. 3.2 Rethinking the Details of the Two Sessions 3.2.1 Is the Fiscal Strength Strong? What Does It Reflect? - The fiscal strength is not weak. The generalized deficit rate decreases slightly. If new policy - based financial instruments are considered, the fiscal policy strength is comparable to that of 2025. The reason for the flat new local special bonds is that local governments face difficulties in leveraging, while new policy - based financial instruments are a form of central government leveraging [31][34]. - A significant portion of the 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds is used to replace hidden debts and pay off government arrears, indicating that local governments still face a heavy historical debt burden. The central government's direction of increasing leverage is clear, but the imagination space for fiscal policy is limited. Future efforts should focus on the revenue side [36]. 3.2.2 How to Look Forward to the Debt - Reduction Progress and Urban Investment Risks? - As of the end of last year, compared with the beginning of 2023, the number and debt scale of financing platforms have both decreased by more than 70%. The overall progress and speed of platform withdrawal are relatively fast [37]. - The orderly resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and local small and medium - sized financial institutions remains one of the major strategic tasks. The bottom - line risk of local government debt is under the government's key attention. Although urban investment bonds have valuation fluctuation risks, there is no need to overly worry about the bottom - line risk [41]. 3.2.3 How to Understand the Stance of Monetary Policy? - The government's statement of "promoting the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost" this year is weaker than that of "promoting the decline of the social comprehensive financing cost" in 2025, indicating that the government is relatively satisfied with the current broad - spectrum interest rate level [42].