美伊冲突情绪主导，豆系冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the domestic soybean complex has seen increased volatility. The prices of soybean and soybean meal futures have reached new highs, and spot prices have also risen. The report expects the soybean No. 1 to trend strongly, and soybean meal to have a strong rebound, but suggests cautious chasing of rising prices and mainly adopting a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No. 1 main 2605 contract reached a high of 4941 and then declined, approaching the 5000-point mark and hitting a nearly 2-year high. The spot price in Fujin rose from 4560 yuan/ton to around 4700 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, with the futures premium turning to discount and then back to premium [3]. - The soybean meal main 2605 contract hit a daily limit and then declined, reaching a high of 3066 and setting a phased high. The spot price in Zhangjiagang rose from 3010 yuan/ton to around 3220 yuan/ton. The basis first weakened and then strengthened, and the futures discount first decreased and then increased [3]. Supply Side - Domestic soybean sales have slowed down, and there is currently no state reserve soybean auction. As of March 6, the remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 35% (a 4% month-on-month decrease), in Anhui to 45% (a 5% decrease), in Henan to 44% (a 5% decrease), and in Shandong to 45% (a 5% decrease). The remaining grain ratio nationwide is higher than the same period last year [3]. - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, and port soybean inventories have slightly decreased. As of March 6, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase, and port soybean inventories were 5.794 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. There is a possibility of continued purchases of US soybeans during the potential visit at the end of March and beginning of April, but currently, due to the high cost of US soybeans and the upcoming South American soybean harvest, the market may prefer to buy South American soybeans [4]. - US soybeans reached a significant high and then declined. Boosted by the US-Iran conflict, the rise in crude oil prices stimulated the demand for biofuels, and the sharp rise in US soybean oil prices supported US soybeans. Additionally, the increase in fertilizer prices raised planting costs. However, as the conflict sentiment weakened, US soybeans declined. The expected increase in the planting area of new US soybean crops should be noted, with the previous US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicting 85 million acres (a 4.7% year-on-year increase) [4]. Demand Side - The operating rate of oil mills has rapidly recovered, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As of March 6, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.47%, a significant month-on-month increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.727 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. The soybean meal output was 1.448 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 761,000 tons, a month-on-month increase; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.306 million tons, a significant month-on-month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.14 days, a month-on-month decrease [4][5]. - Feed demand is relatively strong, but long-term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the livestock sector, pig prices have continued to decline, leading to overall losses in pig farming, with severe losses in some areas. As of March 6, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -58.9 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss; the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -237.9 yuan per head, a severe loss. The industry has held another meeting to emphasize capacity regulation. The inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms slightly decreased in February, the number of sows culled increased slightly month-on-month, the output of piglets increased month-on-month, but sales decreased, and the inventory of commercial pigs stopped decreasing and started to increase again. In the poultry sector, egg prices have declined, increasing losses in poultry farming. The sales volume of chicken chicks still increased in February, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in production may have increased in February. Currently, the high inventory of livestock and poultry still supports feed demand, but capacity may continue to be reduced due to losses, which is unfavorable for the long-term growth of feed demand [5]. Market Outlook - At high prices, the sales of domestic soybeans have slowed down, and the remaining grain has continued to decrease. The market price remains relatively strong, and the soybean No. 1 is expected to trend strongly [5]. - The arrival of domestic soybeans has increased; there is currently no auction; the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. The rebound of soybean meal is relatively strong. Due to the dominance of the US-Iran conflict sentiment, the volatility has increased. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing rising prices and mainly adopt a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [5].